May 7, 2010

To Hawthorn Friends & Family -- 

            There is no better way to describe the current political environment around the world – from Thailand, to Greece, to the UK, to the US – than the words of the old Bob Dylan song from our feckless and misspent youth, “The times, they are a-changing . . . ”

United Kingdom -- 

The “winds of change” certainly blew across the UK yesterday, depriving Labour of their 13-year majority (at latest BBC projection, down 91 seats to 258) . . . but giving the Conservatives 305 seats, less than the 325 needed to form a majority government . . . and leaving the UK with its first “hung parliament” since 1974.

Biggest news was that the Liberal Democrats – whose leader, Nick Clegg rose meteor-like after the first ever televised debate – actually lost five seats (meteors do fall quickly, too) to 57 . . . but are still in a position to decide with which of the two major parties they may coalesce to form a government . . . tho’ that’s but one of the possible scenarios . . . any of which may bring UK voters back to the polls within a matter of months.

Despite some glitches at the polls, turnout rose to 65.1%, up from 61.4% in 2005 and 59.5% in 2001.

Long-time friend and sometime Hawthorn colleague Laura Sandys impressively (48% - 31%) won her bid for a Tory seat in the new parliament.

Back in the US -- 

There were no big surprises in the primaries this week in North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana . . . although in Indiana veteran four-term Republican Congressman Dan Burton won re-nomination with only 30% of the vote.  Clearly if one challenger, not six, had opposed him, this incumbent could have been ousted by his own party.  On the same Indiana ballot, former U.S. Senator Dan Coats, seeking to return to “the world’s greatest deliberative body” won the nomination with only 39% of the vote against four opponents, two of them getting 29% and 23%.

Not a good day for incumbents (albeit one a former incumbent) in Indiana . . . and reflecting massive voter disenchantment with congress.

The big news in Washington this week was the retirement announced by House Appropriations Chairman Dave Obey of Wisconsin.  Obey first won a special election in 1969, to replace the late Mel Laird who joined Nixon’s cabinet.  In the over 40 years since, this liberal from the Viet Nam era of politics became one of the capital’s most respected legislators.  Faced with a tough – but probably winnable – re-election, he chose to retire.

What does Obey’s leaving – leaving a congress with Democrats in current control of both Houses and with a Democrat in the White House – say about his hopes for the next congress?

Along with the retirement of House Science & Technology Chair Bart Gordon (Tennessee), Obey’s departure certainly increases speculation about the prospects of other challenged chairmen, including veteran House Armed Services Chair Ike Skelton (Missouri) and House Natural Resources Chair Nick Rahall (West Virginia) . . . tho’ Skelton is considerably helped by a raging Republican primary to oppose him.  And, of course, House Ways & Means Chair Charlie Rangel (New York), embattled by numerous controversies, has already relinquished his chairmanship “temporarily” . . . a move that may become permanent with his censure/ouster (a fate sub-committee chair John Murtha of Pennsylvania avoided by a timely death).

            Not a good time to be an incumbent Democrat.

And it’s not just House Democrats who are in trouble (although they may lose seats in special elections in Hawaii and in Murtha’s district in Pennsylvania this month, as we noted earlier this week). 

U. S. Senator Bob Bennett in Utah may well be denied re-nomination at the Utah Republican convention on Saturday.  And even former presidential nominee John McCain faces a primary challenge in Arizona from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth (the “loudest mouth in the West”).  Of course, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has abandoned the GOP Senate primary to run as an Independent, and veteran GOP/now Democrat Senator Arlen Specter may lose the Democrat primary in Pennsylvania.

So, it’s also not a good time to be an incumbent, even if you’re a Republican U.S. Senator.

But it could all change -- 

As an old friend wise in the ways of Washington, Mike Dowling, noted after our last observations, “A lot can change between now and November.”  He’s right.  Six months is three lifetimes in modern American politics.

But, that said, the winds of change are surely blowing!

John