May 19, 2010

To Hawthorn Friends & Family –

            Voters made lots of news at the primary polls yesterday, all consistent with Steve Lombardo's predictions yesterday . . . and none of it was good news for incumbents . . . little was good news for Democrats . . . tho' there was even bad news for Republicans . . . there was a surprise tax victory in Arizona . . . along with more scandals for each party.

            The biggest news, of course, was the decisive 54% - 46% defeat of 80-year-old U.S. Senator Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania, a five-term Republican-turned-Democrat, who lost to retired Admiral Joe Sestak, now serving his second term in the U.S. House . . . and who started the race 38 points behind Specter.  In what appears an evenly matched – and certainly heated – race in November, Sestak faces fiscal arch-conservative Pat Toomey, who scared Specter into changing parties in a futile attempt to hang on to his seat.

            Specter's defeat comes on the heels of last week's re-nomination upset defeats of second-generation, third-term GOP Senator Bob Bennett in Utah and veteran second-generation, 14-term Democrat Congressman Alan Mollohan in West Virginia, along with the retirement announcement of Democrat House Appropriations Chair Dave Obey, Wisconsin, a fixture in Washington since the Nixon administration.

            Other bad news yesterday for incumbents and Democrats came in Arkansas, where Democrat Senate Agriculture Chair Blanche Lincoln was forced into a June run-off, getting only 45% in the primary against liberal/labor-backed Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who took 43% of the vote in a three-way race.  Yesterday's result – in fact, Lincoln beat Halter by only 6,347 votes out of 326,166 cast – and the run-off (even if she wins it!) leaves Lincoln very badly damaged going into November.

            But Republicans got their share of bad news, too.  In Pennsylvania, the GOP attempt to win the late John Murtha's congressional seat failed. 

And in Kentucky, the Tea Party, encouraged by party maverick super-conservative South Carolina U. S. Senator Jim DeMint, clobbered the Republican establishment.  Despite personal endorsements and television ads by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Secretary of State Trey Grayson lost the GOP Senate primary to eye surgeon Rand Paul, son of Texas libertarian congressman Ron Paul, by a whopping 24 points, 35% - 59%.   This was a huge personal embarrassment for McConnell.

Kentucky's Democrat establishment suffered, too, as their anointed U.S. Senate choice, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo narrowly lost, 43% - 44%, to more progressive Attorney General Jack Conway, setting up a Paul-Conway battle in November.  Pre-primary polling gave Paul a 44% - 38% projected lead in November.

            Voters in Arizona – long a land of conservatives and retirees – approved a stop-gap revenue measure, a one percent sales tax increase by an epic 64% - 36%, giving some hope for the re-election of Gov. Jan Brewer (R), who succeeded to the office when Janet Napolitano (D) headed to Washington.  Brewer had championed the tax as the only way of fixing a crushing state deficit.  The tax was supported by a broad coalition that spent $2 million to pass it.  Opponents, however, raised $1.25 million, which normally would have been enough to defeat any tax measure.

            Not all the pain yesterday was suffered at the polls.

GOP Rep. Mark Souder announced an about-to-be-disclosed sexual relationship with a staff member and his resignation from congress in what probably remains a solidly Republican district in northeast Indiana. 

And the NEW YORK TIMES, in a front-page, above-the-fold, with four-color picture story, disclosed that Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, heir apparent to Chris Dodd's U.S. Senate seat, had in various increasingly egregious ways over time, lied about his military service in the Viet Nam War (during which he serve in the U.S. Marine Reserves in Washington, D.C.).  While this doesn't, by any means, end Blumenthal's candidacy, it could put a previously certain Democrat win race into play.

As the 2010 campaign season unfolds, we continue to mark how – unchanged since King David first commented upon it millennia ago – "the mighty have fallen."

Perhaps, even more to the point, are the words my late dear friend Clay Marsh used to love to quote from Thomas Gray (1716-1771), who wrote "Elegy Written in a Country Churchyard"

The boast of heraldry, the pomp of power,
And all that beauty, all that wealth e'er gave,
Awaits alike th' inevitable hour:-
The paths of glory lead but to the grave.

            To borrow from another historic quote (John Donne), it's time for the incumbents seeking re-election in 2010 to realize -- as they seek hope and comfort in their polls -- "And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee."