To Hawthorn Friends & Family --

The 2008 campaigns are over. The election is (nearly) finished. The results are (almost all) counted. We have witnessed – and have each been part of – an epic moment in American history, in the long march of democracy, and in the realization of civil liberties and civil rights.

What can we possibly add to all the words that have been (and will be) written and spoken? Perhaps a brief summary and, then, a few words of comment.

Report

PRESIDENT --

Who, not comatose, could fail to know Barack Obama won, 52% - 46%? Monday night we predicted 52.5% - 46.5%. With two states (North Carolina and Missouri) still “too close to call,” Obama’s electoral vote lead is 349-163 (we predicted 367-171 and may still be very close).

In North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes), where we predicted an Obama win, he leads by 12,160 votes out of 4.2 million cast.

In Missouri (another 11 EVs), where we predicted an Obama victory (our heart overruling our head; I should have stayed with my earliest comments to Larry Sabato months ago that Missouri would not go for Obama), McCain leads by 5,853 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.

Obama won well over 90% of the African American vote, two-thirds of the Hispanic vote, and won among both men (49% - 48%) and women (56% - 43%), to become the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and only the second since Lyndon Johnson 44 years ago in 1964, to win more than 50% of the popular vote.

In addition to his lead in one of the two “too-close-to-call” states, Obama won eight other states which President Bush carried four years ago: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada (all of which we predicted correctly, with the exception of Indiana). . . along with, possibly, North Carolina and (less likely) Missouri.

He raised some $650 million from nearly 3.5 million donors and forever re-wrote the rules on campaign financing.

Despite predictions, massive early voting, and long lines at the polls, it appears – subject to more in-depth analysis in coming days – that turnout did NOT reach historic highs. We’re currently at about 119 million total votes cast. That may get to 120+ million. We had 122 million in ’04, so, at best, we may get to ’04 levels. Disappointingly – but not surprisingly to some of us old “war horses” – it appears that while young voters overwhelmingly favored Obama, they did NOT turn out at significantly higher levels than previous years.

U.S. SENATE --

Four U.S. Senate races remain “too close to call”:

In Minnesota, GOP incumbent Norm Coleman hangs on to a 314 vote lead out of 2.8 million votes cast. We predicted Al Franken would win and he still might in this three-man race which is headed to a recount

In Oregon, GOP incumbent Gordon Smith, whom we expected to lose badly, has a 19,308 vote lead out of 1.2 million votes counted, but that’s with 76% of the precincts reporting

In Alaska, GOP incumbent Ted Stevens, recently convicted on seven counts, has a shocking 3,353 vote lead out of 209,000 votes counted with 99% of the precincts reporting (of course, if his re-election is certified, leaders of both parties in the senate have promised they would oust him) . . . which also show his House colleague, Don Young, thought certain to be defeated, winning with 51% of the votes counted.

And in Georgia, while incumbent Saxby Chambliss has rolled up a 114,806 vote lead out of 3.5 million votes cast, it’s still not clear whether he will squeak by the 50% mark of total votes cast and avoid a run-off.

Among the “called” races, Democrats have, as we predicted, picked up five seats, in New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and New Mexico, increasing the Democratic total to 56 seats (including two Independents). Unless they win all four still-to-be-called races – something that seems VERY unlikely – they will not get to the “magic” 60 needed to block filibusters on straight party lines (which is NOT how the senate usually votes on controversial issues, anyway).

However, the Democrats could end up winning six or seven, maybe even eight (once Alaska is ultimately settled) of the eight seats we yesterday predicted they would win. Our expectation that Southern GOP senators would hang on in Georgia (tho’ as we suggested perhaps forced be into a run-off), Mississippi and Kentucky has also proved correct.

And, after yesterday, there will be two more new U.S. Senators, something on whom no one seems focused this morning (at least not outside Chicago and Wilmington).

Virtually ignored in the national media this morning is the fact that embattled Democratic Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich has to appoint a successor to his state’s junior senator and now president-elect, Barack Obama. Will it be Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr.? That seems increasingly likely as Congressman Rahm Emanuel is increasingly expected to be named – today or tomorrow – as Chief of Staff in the Obama White House.

And, depending on when Vice-President elect Joe Biden resigns from the senate, either the current governor of Delaware or her also Democratic successor, will name his replacement, with a high expectation that it will be Biden’s son, Joseph R. “Beau” Biden III, the current Attorney General of Delaware, now on National Guard duty in Iraq (tho’ there is some belief the nod could go to the loser in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, current Lt. Gov. John Carney Jr., allowing the younger Biden to run later for – and, presumably, win – governor or senator on his own, without benefitting from an appointment).

U.S. HOUSE --

With 11 races still “too close to call,” the Democrats have added 15 seats, increasing their House numbers already from to 251 from 236. They could end up adding a total of 20 or 21 seats, less than the 24-28 we predicted. The last Republican from New England, Connecticut’s Chris Shays, lost his seat.

GOVERNORS --

Democrats gained one governorship (Missouri, as we predicted), and hung on to keep Washington (as we also predicted) and North Carolina (contrary to our predictions, continuing their 16-year hold on the office). Also as we predicted, Democrats kept the governorships in Montana, West Virginia, and New Hampshire, while the GOP kept their governorships in Utah, North Dakota, Indiana, and Vermont.

STATE LEGISLATURES --

Latest reports on the legislative front – with four houses still officially “too close to call” (Indiana House, Texas House*, Montana House, and Alaska Senate) – suggest five chambers switched from Republican to Democrat while four chambers did the opposite, going from the Dems to the GOP:

The first switch of the night was the Delaware House, going Democrat for the first time since 1984.

The “big prize” of the night was the Democrats’ taking the New York Senate, adding to their control of the House and Governor’s Office.

Another big prize went to Democrats, the Ohio House, along with the Wisconsin Assembly and the Nevada Senate.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night, was the Republicans’ taking the Tennessee House for the first time in 38 years, since 1970, and winning a clear majority in the Tennessee Senate, that was previously tied, creating problems for Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen.

Republicans won the Oklahoma Senate for the first time in the state’s history!!!

Republicans also won the Montana Senate.

*Latest reports from Texas are that Republicans will hold the House 76-74 (tho’ a recount of two is expected), with the real battle now being for Speaker.

BALLOT ISSUES --

While the outcome is still “too close (for some) to call” on the gay marriage ban in California, it appears to have passed, as it did in Arizona and Florida, along with a ban on gay adoption in Arkansas. But Connecticut voters rejected the plan to hold a rare convention to make changes to their constitution which opponents of same-sax marriage has hope would lead to a ballot initiative to ban the practice.

Abortion bans/parental notification failed in California, Colorado, and (for the second election in a row) South Dakota.

Nebraska banned Affirmative Action, Colorado didn’t. Colorado also rejected the anti-labor “right-to-work.”

Arizona refused to crack down on employers hiring illegal immigrants. Michigan approved medical marijuana. Maryland authorized slot machine gaming. And Washington approved assisted suicide.

And the biggest surprise to me – at least in size of margin – Massachusetts voters resisted the temptation to repeal the state income tax, defeating it 70% - 30%.

Comments

“My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total.”

Barbara Jordan (1936-1996)
July 24, 1974

Oh, but that she had lived to see last night, “the gentlelady from Texas” as Chairman Rodino introduced her on that hot July night during the House Judiciary hearings on the impeachment of President Nixon, when she held a national television audience spellbound with her rhetoric! And, oh, but had her fellow Texan, Lyndon Johnson – whose Voting Rights and Civil Rights Acts laid the foundations for what happened yesterday – also lived to see the ultimate ratification in action of the laws he championed and signed with great promise, but uncertain fulfillment!

For many, yesterday’s exercise in democracy – the outcome it produced and the process through which it went – reaffirmed faith in the Constitution, in democracy, in the pluralism, tolerance, and fair judgment of America’s voters. While there can only be one ultimate winner in any race, all the candidates, taken together, demonstrated this year that there are no longer insurmountable barriers to fair competition . . . not for Blacks, nor women, nor Hispanics, nor Mormons, nor fundamentalists, nor libertarians, nor anyone else.

But as late as this morning in the WASHINGTON POST, House Minority Leader John Boehner (desperate to hold his leadership position) was still claiming “America is a center-right nation” (with emphasis on “right”).

I am considerably less sure of that than I am of my friend and colleague of 24 years, GOP Pollster Alex Gage’s, long-time view that

“America is a centrist nation.
Sometimes we drift to the right, sometimes to the left, but we always come back to center.
And any politician who ignores that, doesn’t understand American voters.”

Of all the many points that could be made (most of which are being over-made by the pundits) about yesterday, let me, briefly, make five:

I’ve covered and worked in political campaigns for 38 years. I have never seen (nor read in history of) as perfectly planned or flawlessly executed a campaign as Barack Obama’s. It is said “victories come from the mistakes you don’t make” (a view confirmed by the manifest mistakes of the McCain campaign). The Obama campaign didn’t make mistakes. More than that, they pioneered new worlds of political persuasion and organization. Theirs is a model campaigns will study and follow for a generation.

(2) The Democrats continue to have a huge problem in the South. Despite historic turnout and record-breaking support of large blocks of African American voters, while winning a decisive national victory, Barack Obama lost:

Alabama 39% - 61%
Arkansas, 39% - 60%
Louisiana, 40% - 59%
Kentucky, 41% - 58%
Tennessee, 42% - 57%
Mississippi, 43% - 57%
Texas, 44% - 55%
South Carolina, 45% - 54%
Georgia, 46% - 53%

And despite analyses earlier in the campaign, the Democrats don’t have nearly as much of a problem with older white women or blue-collar white workers nationally, as they have with white Southerners. And that problem extends to the border South. It’s why Obama is behind in Missouri (where he appears to be carrying only nine counties out of 115), why he lost West Virginia 43% - 56%, and why, given his votes in its rural and southern counties, he barely won Indiana.

When Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act he told Bill Moyers, “I’ve just given the South to the Republican Party for two generations.” Some 50 years later, the Democrats haven’t figured out how to reclaim it.

(3) Two battles-royal are about to be fought in Washington, D.C., and, to an extent among activists, interest groups and constituents throughout America:

One will be a battle in congress (and with the new administration). . . over just how aggressive, how partisan-alienating, and – based on the first two -- how action-producing it can actually be under the leadership of Nevada’s Harry Reid (himself up for re-election in 2010, but surely comforted by Democrat victories in his state yesterday) and San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi and their lieutenants.

The second will be within the Republican Party. There will be hot debate over why they lost (because they nominated a centrist? because Bush failed to govern as a conservative, but, instead as a big-spending international interventionist and savior of Wall Street?), where they should position themselves (move to the center? go to the right? the old right or the new right?), who should lead them (the chair of the House Republican caucus has already announced he is stepping down, outside discontent might possibly force change in the Senate leadership, there are a handful of candidates already campaigning to be GOP national chair, there is no one clearly emerging as the face/voice of the party, e.g., Palin, Romney, Huckabee, etc.), what they should advocate that will restore the luster of their brand, etc. It will be a bloody battle, as internecine ones always are.

(4) It is easy to overstate the impact of campaign “flaps.” Both Democrat John Murtha’s comment and Republican Michelle Bachman’s got them in what the media were convinced was fatal trouble. Opposition organizations poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into their races to seize the opportunity of their mistakes. After all that, Murtha won re-election 58% - 42% and Bachman is winning by 12,000 votes, 46% - 44%.

(5) As noted in (1), above, the Obama campaign was brilliantly planned and flawlessly executed. But the campaign is over. The time has come to govern. Can Barack Obama and his people do so with equal success, especially in these extraordinarily challenging times? Not if they continue to view it as a “permanent campaign” (the discredited idea of pollster Pat Caddell in the failed administration of Jimmy Carter). Governing once in office – tho’ requiring some of the same skills – is fundamentally different from campaigning in an election. Or, as another great Democrat from Illinois, twice denied the presidency, once said,

“The ultimate test of a political party -- the final, acid test --
is not winning the election, it is governing the nation.”

Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965)

Enough commentary. Let’s do this again in four years . . . but, thank you Lord, not before!

John