September 2, 2008

To Hawthorn Friends & Family -- 

With much to comment on – from Obama’s acceptance to Palin’s selection – below is the latest from Steve Lombardo . . . including his first LCG Regression-Based Vote Projection (showing, incidentally, McCain losing by 3.1 percentage points).

I have hesitated to write about the conventions; they are so over-covered by the media, the bloggers and the talking heads, I can’t imagine what I could add that would be of interest/use.

In terms of Steve’s comments, I think he, as always, has it about right.  However, I’m not sure I buy Obama is ahead by 3.1 points or that it is significant (admittedly, Steve wrote, “. . . there really hasn’t been much of a trend.  It’s just a cloud of data points.”).  Further, that is nearly within the “margin of error” and offers little comfort against the “Bradley factor” (the extent to which polling overstates votes for African-American candidates)

My piecemeal reading of various polls in the last couple of days (which is far less valid than Steve’s disciplined analysis) would suggest the race remains virtually tied . . . that Obama did not, in fact, get much “bounce” out of his convention . . . that Obama didn’t succeed in “closing the deal” with undecided/marginally opposed voters (and I must, in fairness, credit the phrase “closing the deal” to a veteran Democratic guru who articulated it as the single thing Obama has to do between now and November 4).  Maybe, in Denver, he started the process of introduction, of persuasion, of “closing the deal” . . . but it was only a start, if that; it’s going to be a long struggle, through the GOP convention, the early campaigning, the debates, and the late campaigning . . . right up to the last weekend, which is when most voters who are undecided today will make up their minds.

For now, Obama is running 10 to 12 points behind his party (the margin by which people would prefer to see Democrats win the White House this Fall).  He may cut into that measure of personal rejection, gaining ground, especially as Americans face increasing distress with jobs, economy, food and fuel prices, foreclosures, mounting debt and tightening credit.

Steve is also right, if the apparently more-superficial-than-substantive process by which Palin was selected becomes the issue, she will be a major liability.  I’m not convinced she will become a candidate for Eagleton-like removal; it is hard to imagine that John McCain with his loyalty would desert her.  But she could become an issue.  Short of that, she matters little.  She gives comfort and enthusiasm to the far right.  She mirrors what they want America to be.  But she doesn’t mirror what America is. 

Finally, the fight for the undecided will be between Obama and McCain – and mostly about Obama – not about vice presidential nominees.

If I’m right, that Obama didn’t get much “bounce” out of the Democratic convention, who would be surprised a staged-for-media, non-event, “paid infomercial” (as Michael Coe called it) had, over the course of a week, little effect (even with 38 million watching Obama’s speech).   Those viewers saw Joe Biden start his performance Thursday night with a “hell-o” to Harry Reid.  The handful of viewers who even know who Harry Reid is saw reconfirmation of Biden as an ultimate Washington insider, playing “inside baseball,” as oblivious to what real Americans know and are interested in as the convention(s) is(are) irrelevant to all but the party faithful.

Is it time to end national party conventions as the anachronism they have become?  They are nothing but staged set pieces, dramas with actors “chewing the scenery,” over-hyped performers delivering over-written speeches to an under-interested audience . . . engaged to no useful purpose (all major decisions having been made by primaries and caucuses and all minor decisions made by the victor’s staff, driven by polls) . . . an event that exists only to “be” and not to “do” anything.

It IS time for the parties to find a new vehicle to celebrate the nominee.  Has there been a nominating fight of significance since, 52 years ago, Stevenson threw the vice presidential choice to the convention floor in ’56?  Has there been a moment of great, tradition-breaking, sea-changing drama since FDR boarded a Ford Tri-motor, to fly to Chicago 76 years ago, in 1932, to become the first nominee to address a convention in person, saying, “I pledge you, I pledge myself, to a new deal for the American people.”?

I agree, too, that there has been little memorable advertising . . . and I would rate McCain’s not only better than Obama’s, but far more nimble.

Now, post-Gustav, the GOP is back to conventioneering . . . then come the campaigns, the debates, the charges and counter-charges, more advertising, surely some surprise events, then, after the World Series (the October event that REALLY matters to most Americans), the undecideds will make up their minds – whether to vote and for whom to vote – and the polls will open November 4 for what JFK called his inaugural, “not a victory of party but a celebration of freedom.”  Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the campaigns were worthy of that.

John

Friends,

Boy, you take two weeks off and the whole political world turns upside down.  The following are some quick observations on the current political landscape.   Let’s start with Obama and the Democrats:

1. Obama and his team made a tactical error by vacationing in early August.  Our sense is that he lost a lot of momentum that his campaign had built up in the Spring and early Summer. 
2. This—combined with his lackluster performance at Saddleback and the campaign’s uninspiring television advertising—resulted in his limping into the convention.  Several national polls released just prior to the convention showed Obama up by just a couple of points or dead-even with McCain. 
3. However, the convention was a success by the only important measure: it successfully introduced Obama to millions of people who did not know him.  Additionally, it matched the historical average for convention bounces (3-5%) by giving Obama a four-point bump in our post-convention poll analysis.
4. The Obama team won the expectations game regarding the Clinton speeches.   For days the media wondered aloud how strong the Clinton(s) endorsement of Obama would be and acted stunned by the strength of their vocal support. 
5. Bill Clinton’s speech was a home run.  The former President showed again why he is such an effective politician (even if you disagree with what he is saying).  He gave the best comparison between the two candidates in explaining why the Democrats are the better choice this year. 
6. The image of Obama’s convention speech will stick with voters.  Simply put, the production was a show-stopper.  Getting 84,000 people in a stadium to see a political speech was impressive enough, but combining that with the Greek columns, the fireworks, confetti shot from a cannon and grand orchestral music made this seem like a Hollywood blockbuster.  Nearly twice as many people watched his speech on television compared to John Kerry’s in 2004 (38 million viewers compared to 20 million four years ago).  Those images will stick with people. 
7. Picking Joe Biden for VP was smart…announcing it on Friday at 1 a.m. was not so smart.  The selection added much-needed experience to the ticket.  Perception is everything, and the takeaway from most voters was that Obama had the good sense to pick a grown-up.  However, we are stunned by the timing of the announcement.  It was a major communications misfire and a wasted opportunity. 
8. While the Obama adverstising has been lackluster, some recent spots are beginning to tie McCain to Bush (a strategy which we argued weeks ago they should have been pursuing since June).  These are pretty effective.

On the McCain/Republican side:

1.  The Palin pick is neither a game-changer nor a disaster.  On the plus side, she has and will continue to invigorate the base, and she is the ONLY thing being talked about both on the convention floor and in newsrooms across the country.  In 24 hours, the McCain campaign went from no buzz to being the political version of the iPhone 3G.  She is a base pick who will have a cultural connection with alarge swath of the nation’s voters.  She also brings a reformer edge that compliments McCain.  On the other hand, as hundreds of commentators have pointed out, she undercuts the experience argument against Obama.  A few comments on the selection:

1. Vice Presidential nominees do not matter.  With the exception of Johnson in 1960 this is the truest thing you can say about Presidential elections.  In the end, the only thing they can do is hurt you.  This race has always been about Obama and (to a lesser extent) McCain…and it still is.
2. She is a base pick, pure and simple.  This is not about attracting Clinton voters.  Her job is to energize a flagging Republican base. 
3. We think this pick will make Biden’s job quite a bit harder.  If Palin holds her own in the debates and exceeds expectations it is a victory for McCain. 
4. Finally, unlike the Biden roll-out, this one was done beautifully and blunted the Obama post-convention bounce. 

2. McCain’s advertising has been vastly better than Obama’s.  As we pointed out in mid-August the McCain attacks on Obama in July and August kept this thing close.   For the most part, the McCain ads have worked because:
   1. They usually make their point clearly and simply
   2.  They contrast the two candidates in sharp and relatable terms
   3. They use third party validators (often Obama’s primary opponents or his own words)
   4. They employ viscerally engaging video that help tell the story
   5. They tell a story that people are already pre-disposed to believe (that Obama is not ready to lead)

Here is a quick sampling of the most recent McCain contrast spots that we think have made a difference:

"Remote Control"

"Tiny"

"3 AM"

3. Yes, they tried to make lemonade out of lemons, but make no mistake: losing a day of free convention advertising was a major blow to the Republicans.  They had no choice in delaying/curtailing the opening night, but that doesn’t mean it was good for them.  In fact, it means 25% less time for defining Obama and laying out McCain’s agenda.  They get some points for putting the country first but that may be long forgotten in a few days. 
4. With Labor Day in our rear-view mirror, the fundamentals of this campaign (a bad economy, very negative impressions of the incumbent and his party, a dissatisfied electorate) are locked in and they overwhelmingly favor Obama.  Every recent national poll (released over the last three days) has Obama up by anywhere from four to eight points.  It is still Obama’s election to lose. 

LCG Regression-Based Vote Projection

Beginning today, we unveil our regression analysis/vote projection.  To completely bore (most of) you, we have developed a single line projecting the net McCain vote.  We have included all reputable publicly available registered voter polls since June 9th of this year (there are 56 polls in total).  The most recent poll includes interviews conducted on Sept 1st.  We used SPSS to develop a curvilinear polynomial regression model. 

If you project the trend out to Election day, our analysis shows McCain losing by 3.1 percentage points. 

Hats off to Chris Blunt who helped develop the model.  Truth be told, there really hasn’t been much of a trend. It's just a cloud of data points.   The regression suggests that there has been some tightening but not enough to close the gap by November 4th.  Of course, this assumes no change in the political environment and there will be hundreds of meaningful changes. 

Things to watch in the coming days:

• If the Palin narrative becomes a “process” story.  This would be devastating for McCain.  The focus on Palin needs to be about her…and not how she was selected or vetted. 
• How much of the GOP convention focus is on Obama.  Team McCain will try to bloody Obama with surrogates over the next 48 hours. 
• Whether tropical storm/hurricane “Hanna” is impacting Florida on Thursday evening enough to impact what McCain and the GOP say and do. 

Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia , John Zirinsky and Chris Blunt for their contributions to this Election Monitor.  Be sure to visit LCG and Pollster.com.

Steve