LIPTON OR BIGELOW?

 

It may be “the economy stupid” but the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that despite Republicans controlling the White House and Congress, they “didn’t have a clear advantage among voters who said the economy was the most important or a very important issue.”

In fact, the survey is “a sign that many voters are looking for a check on Mr. Trump” with more than half “less likely to vote for a candidate who sticks with the president on policy issues more than 90% of the time.”

Besides, as Emory University scholar Alan Abramowitz sees it, a humming economy and support for the party in power do not always correlate. (npr.org/2018)

Consider, though, the president had not lost the loyalty of laid-off nail plant workers in Poplar Bluff, Missouri affected by tariffs on Mexican steel.  But while early payments for farmers hurt by tariffs kick in before the election, corn growers apparently get only a penny on the bushel. 

Then, there’s the “enthusiasm gap” which elections expert Amy Walter sees as a possible preview of that cautiously-predicted “blue wave” (Wall Street Journal, “Is Trump Creating New Republicans?” September 21, 2018). Yes, Republicans are about as charged up now as they were in the 2010 Tea Party surge, and the party’s 47% national favorability rating is as high as it has been in seven years.  A review of polling on races from California to Florida suggest that in terms of support level and turnout, Latino voters are no sure bet to help Dems.

But Nate Silver looks at special elections during the Trump reign as a barometer of “the sort of turnout one might expect in this year’s midterms.” It led one respected political handicapper to suggest an “herbal tea party” this cycle.

And while tea is unlikely to be featured at any collegiate football tailgates this fall – or any fall for that matter –sip on this with your Jack and Coke:  Senator Mike Espy?  Yeah, yeah, even the Cook Political Report has both Mississippi senate seats in decidedly Republican columns.  But there’s a possible path for the former Clinton cabinet secretary in a runoff the Tuesday after Thanksgiving with Sen. Hyde-Smith in which the Chris McDaniel anti-Republican establishment stays home or delivers a revenge vote for the Democrat.

That doesn’t leave much time to digest turkey and pumpkin pie if flesh needs to be pressed.  And what might draw some national party names to the Magnolia State that holiday weekend? The Ole’ Miss-Mississippi State showdown is Black Friday.  At this writing both teams have identical 3-1 records.    

Preliminary Thoughts on the 2019 Races

To Hawthorn Friends & Family —

In the absence of any recent musing by us on the political scene (what, we ask ourselves, could possibly need to be said that isn’t already being said, over and over?), to my utter amazement I’ve been getting emails from folks asking if they’ve been dropped from our distribution lists and actually asking for our current thoughts.

I’m not sure there is much to add to what, as noted, is being said, but in the interest of at least highlighting items that we’ve noted recently, let me share:

  1. The President’s Fundraising Advantage

The Trump campaign this week announced they had raised $30 million in the first quarter of this year.  I was struck by:

  • Although likely to INCREASE as the election gets closer, that’s an ANNUAL fundraising rate of $120 million a year.
  • It is more than the top two Democratic contenders combined.
  • Of President Trump’s contributions 99% are $200 or less — a stunning demonstration of small donor support — with the average contribution $34.
  • He has $40 million cash on hand.

In the immortal words of the late Deep Throat of long-ago Watergate fame, Follow the money.”

And that wisdom applies not only to totals, but also to SIZE of gifts and number of true small donors.  Not even Bernie Sanders – or Elizabeth Warren, who has eschewed major contributions – can begin to approach 99% small donors.  That’s an impressive base of voters and potential volunteers (IF the Trump campaign can figure out how to use them to localize and personalize the Trump message).

Where is all this money coming from? Seniors are part of the answer. See this week’s story from Axios where Trump is targeting Seniors on Facebook over other age demographics.

I was also reminded of Deep Throat’s wise admonition reading a MoScout story this week about Missouri Democratic State Auditor – and the party’s best hope for a gubernatorial candidate in 2020 – Nicole Galloway’s fundraising.  It noted she had “raised $144,194, not too far from the amount raised by Mike Parson, the sitting governor, $198,931.”  

BUT as MoScout noted – and God IS in the details (of finances AND politics) – “If she dives into this race, Galloway will have to redouble her fundraising because Team Parson holds a big money lead.  His campaign committee has more than $1 million cash on-hand (Galloway has $65K COH) and Parson’s allied PAC, Uniting Missouri, has $2.3 million on-hand.”

There is a WORLD of difference between trailing in recent fundraising by only $50,000 and trailing in cash on-hand by $3.2 million.

In this rapidly changing world of politics, “Follow the money” remains unchanged.

  1. The RNC’s Fundraising Advantage

Anyone “following the money” would also note that as of March 1, 2019, the FEC reported the Democratic National Committee had cash on hand of $8,660,790, with debts of $4,590,612, a net of $3,960,178 while the Republican National Committee had cash of hand of $31,141,261, with NO debt, an eight-to-one advantage to the GOP.

  1. Categorizing the Democratic Aspirants

With no hope of yet being able to handicap their prospects, I am currently grouping the Democrats into two categories:

  • “The Over-the-Hill Gang”  (Sanders at 77, Biden at 76, Warren at 69, etc. vs. Trump at 72 and laughably irrelevant William Weld at 73) and
  • “The Not Quite Ready for Prime Time Players” (Harris, O’Rourke, Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Booker, Castro, etc.).

There is, of course, a third category, “Legends in their Own Minds” (to borrow a phrase from the late beloved Bob Strauss), those hopelessly tilting at windmills who are unlikely to ever break through the initial barrier and start to be taken seriously (Swalwell, Gabbard, Ryan, Delaney, Yang, etc.).  And while nearly doomed to stay in that hopeless category, there are some appealing would-be contenders, one, or two, or even three of whom might catch on enough to become at least minor contenders (Inslee, Hickenlooper, Bennett, etc.).

  1. The Front-Loaded Democratic Calendar

Despite the 20-or-more candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, it COULD be an early decision.

As University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato pointed out recently in his always “must read” Crystal Ball, “almost two-thirds of the total number of pledged delegates will be awarded in the first seven weeks of the nominating season, from February 3, 2020 through March 17, 2020.”

Indeed, as he points out (and we highlight the MAJOR states), in only two weeks, between Super Tuesday (California, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia) on March 3rd, thru March 10th (Michigan and Ohio), thru March 17th (Florida and Illinois), 60% of the Democratic delegates will be awarded.

It is, of course, NOT certain at all there will be an early winner. Iowa and New Hampshire – grossly NON-representative of the Democrats’ voting base – don’t account for all that many delegates and Sanders or Warren may have a “lock” on neighboring New Hampshire.

Minorities start appearing at the polls in Nevada and, massively, in South Carolina (each also in other ways non-representative of the rest of America).

Among the big early states, Sen. Kamala Harris may have a lock on California, Beto O’Rourke on Texas and Warren on Massachusetts . . . leaving the big early battleground states of Florida, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Two other interesting changes this year:

  • Early voting in California starts the same day as the Iowa caucuses and well before New Hampshire’s primary.  Without formally threatening their – totally indefensible – “first in the nation status,” it does diminish/skew their impact.
  • In 2020, Super Delegates (760 out of some 4,530 total delegates) can only vote on the first ballot IF the nomination has already been decided by the primaries.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball actually explains this arcania in an intelligible manner . . . and makes the point the last President whose nomination went to a second ballot was FDR in ’32 (when two-thirds of the delegates were still required for nomination) and the last nominee whose nomination went to a second  ballot was Adlai Stevenson in ’52.  Why DO we have conventions any more, anyway?

  1. The Senate Looks Grim for a Democratic Takeover in 2020

While 22 of the 35 seats up in 2020 are GOP seats, prospects are NOT good for a Democratic takeover.

In his last report, the inimitable Charlie Cook viewed NONE of the Republican seats a “Lean Democrat” or “Toss-Up” . . .  and only three as “Lean Republican” (the rest being “Likely Republican” or “Solid Republican”).  He counts those three “Lean Republican” seats as Arizona (McSally), Colorado (Gardner) and Maine (Collins, whose DEMOCRAT colleague from West Virginia, Joe Manchin, has already endorsed her).  Any of the three COULD become a serious race, but not without a serious challenger, which each currently lacks.  While Sen. Collins does not have an opponent yet, Democratic fury at her Kavanaugh vote has already raised over $3 million to her future opponent.

Of the 13 Democratic seats, Charlie considers 11 of them safe for re-election, two “Likely D” and nine “Solid D.”  However, he lists one – Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama – as “Toss Up.”

While I’ve learned the perils of disagreeing with Charlie, I’d push it farther to the GOP, to at least “Lean Republican” if not “Likely Republican.”  Jones beat the infamous Roy Moore by 21,924 votes in his special election runoff that saw 22,852 write-in votes posted (mostly by Republicans disgusted with Moore, such as the senior Senator, Richard Shelby).  It is a state President Trump carried by 62.08% to 34.06%.  There are NO Democrats in statewide office.  A pathetically weak GOP candidate for governor won in 2018 with 59.5% of the vote.  Doug Jones is a quietly but strongly impressive public servant and a solid candidate, but his prospects are dim in that state.

So, instead of gaining the two seats they need to take the majority, we believe the Democrats will actually LOSE one seat and the GOP will keep the Senate.

  1. And Governors Don’t Look Much Better for Dems.

There are 14 governors offices on the ballot this cycle, three this year (Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucky) and 11 next year . . . a total of  five Democrat and nine Republican.  Charlie counts NONE as “Toss Up” and only two Democrat (Louisiana and Montana) as “Lean Democrat” and only one Republican (Kentucky) as “Lean Republican.”

We agree with Charlie and see little change among Governors . . . indeed, we’d call Kentucky as “Likely Republican.”  The incumbent seems likely to hold on to Louisiana and we don’t know enough about Montana to have a view.

  1. Can the Democrats Hold the U. S. House?

It is, in all honestly, too early to tell.  But we haven’t seen much to make us believe political attitudes have changed since November, 2018, when the Democrats came from behind to sweep control.

Of course, President Trump will be ON the ballot in 2020, a HUGE change from 2018.  And it’s clear House members – from Speaker Pelosi to the young firebrands – will be major attack targets for the President. 

  1. What We Really Need!

I have been working on a speech for a group of historic-minded benefactors in the old Missouri frontier town of Arrow Rock, who will gather there to honor my dear friend Chet Breitwieser as the new president of the Friends of Arrow Rock.

That little town in the tumultuous years before (and just after) the Civil War that was family home to three governors of Missouri, up the road from the farm of the state’s embattled chief justice, and (in the person of one of America’s most famous artists, George Caleb Bingham), home for a state treasurer and state adjutant general . . . all citizens – not professional career politicians – willing to serve in high public office in horribly difficult times.

Appealing for similar citizen involvement today, I intend to quote – with apologies for its male-gender foucs, typical of the era in which it was written – a poem by Josiah Gilbert Holland:

GOD, give us men!
A time like this demands
Strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands;
Men whom the lust of office does not kill;
Men whom the spoils of office can not buy;
Men who possess opinions and a will;
Men who have honor; men who will not lie;
Men who can stand before a demagogue
And damn his treacherous flatteries without winking!
Tall men, sun-crowned, who live above the fog
In public duty, and in private thinking;
For while the rabble, with their thumb-worn creeds,
Their large professions and their little deeds,
Mingle in selfish strife, lo! Freedom weeps,
Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps.

John

Hey Amazon: It’s 2019 not 1920

Citizens, not powerbrokers, are the key to the deal and corporations should beware of growing populism against “corporate greed.”

I can’t think of a better example to demonstrate the basic rules of engagement:

  • Do the research.
  • Know the territory.
  • Keep your finger on the pulse.
  • Make friends before you need them. 
  • And never, ever take anything for granted.

If Amazon had approached this deal the same way they created loyal customers they likely could have avoided this very public catastrophe in Long Island City. But instead one of the largest companies in the world, along with two powerful politicians, got their “butts kicked.” If they had taken the time to understand the territory, communicate and build alliances, I would argue they could have had a very different outcome. 

Instead they relied on old school thinking. They decided the support of two popular powerbrokers– Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio – was enough. Surprisingly, these two very experienced politicians either didn’t advise Amazon – or Amazon didn’t listen – to first build local leader and citizen support. With perfect 20-20 hindsight, Mayor de Blasio stated, “We gave Amazon the opportunity to be a good neighbor and do business in the greatest city in the world … Instead of working with the community, Amazon threw away that opportunity.”

In today’s world of social media induced activism, the outspoken views of a few activists are amplified, giving voice to what some others are thinking, and that quickly cascades into the appearance of a movement. In this case a so-called movement that gave citizens and local leaders a huge and unexpected victoryand provided a national platform for populists who are increasingly looking askance at corporate activities. Consider that on the day Amazon bailed and GE fessed up the 800 jobs it promised were only 250, John Boyd, a specialist in such deals, toldThe Boston Globe of “unprecedented citizen contentiousness” with “an increasingly populist zeitgeist among politicians,” citing “income inequality” and “the gulf between haves and have-nots.”

I don’t know whether Amazon did a poll before they selected Long Island but even if they did, things changed dramatically from when they entered the market in 2017 and 2019. Just ask 10-term Congressman Joe Crowley. Regular polling would have picked up on fast-moving changes and they would have recognized that last year’s elections shook the foundation of state politics and the support for their proposal. They would have have seen the deep and growing division between the centrists who seek jobs and economic growth and a growing force of new residents and young populists for whom tax incentives and corporate behemoths are unpopular.

Careful analysis of tracking polling would have shown the skepticism among African Americans, Latinos, Asians and the other nationalities that make Queens the most ethnically diverse urban area in the country. Indeed, there are nearly 50 ethnic newspapers and magazines published in the Borough. And, if they had their finger on the pulse of the community they also would have recognized and have had the time to deal with union opposition (a resurging political force as demonstrated in several state ballot measure wins in the 2018 election that corporations should take note of) by working earlier with union leaders and doing outreach to individual members.

Amazon and the political leaders they had on board were not able to effectively communicate the local value of the deal’s merits. People didn’t hear that the $3 billion in tax breaks for Amazon was – for the most part – reductions in future taxes. Instead, what they heard and got mad about was the carve-out in the deal for a helipad for executives … instead of support for mass transit. The message about the $3 billion in incentives bringing $27 billion in revenue to support infrastructure upgrades for schools, roads and sidewalks, parks and other improvements in neighborhoods was lost in the fray.

In the wake of Obama populism, the model of community organizing has translated well for the new business paradigm. Airbnb has navigated its way through cities around the world to grab its share of the tourist hospitality trade. Ride sharing ventures like Uber and Lyft have rallied support –neighborhood by neighborhood, census tract by census tract – to dramatically reshape the transportation culture.

How could Amazon and New York not make it work?  Did they ignore the fundamentals:  pulling everyone around the proverbial table and making all seated feel they were about to share in something exciting for their city, their neighborhoods, their livelihoods, their families,their futures

Perhaps the memo was lost, the one somewhere between Seattle, Albany and City Hall; the one that prescribed building grassroots coalitions and neighborhood advisory groups and business advisory panels and education and community alliances.  The one that required listening.

February 18, 2019 

Suzanne Hammelman, President, The Hawthorn Group
shammelman@hawthorngroup.com

Media Release: Henry Rubin Named Vice President

New vice president will continue to build Hawthorn’s expertise in
local, state and federal public affairs campaigns

Alexandria, Virginia – The Hawthorn Group’s Director of Client Services, Henry A. Rubin, has been named Vice President, effective immediately.
Rubin has been with Hawthorn since 2016 and has served as Director of Client Services for the public affairs firm since May 2018.

The announcement was made by Hawthorn’s President and Chief Operating Officer, Suzanne Hammelman, who said, “Mr. Rubin has played an important role in the growth of Hawthorn in coordinating services and projects for clients of the firm. A first-rate professional, Henry is keenly attuned to rapidly changing trends in the public affairs practice at the federal, state and local levels and will build on that experience for our clients, particularly those in heavily regulated industries.”

Prior to joining Hawthorn, Mr. Rubin was a state government affairs fellow for AARP, the nation’s largest nonprofit. He was also a health policy analyst at Vertex Pharmaceuticals.

Rubin holds an M.A. in Government and an M.B.A. from the Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School. He graduated from Hobart and William Smith Colleges in 2013 with a B.A. in Political Science.

A native of Radnor, Pennsylvania, Henry is a passionate Philadelphia sports fan. He resides in Washington, D.C.
Hawthorn is an international public affairs company of senior professionals who work with corporate and association clients to solve crisis, public affairs, communications, community, customer and employee problems.

# # #

Contact: Suzanne Hammelman, 703.299.4499, shammelman@hawthorngroup.com

A Post Election View From Across the Potomac

To Hawthorn Friends & Family —

While we’ll spend weeks pouring over who voted (and didn’t vote) on Tuesday (as well as during the up to six weeks of early voting) and why (and why not), we’ve had several requests for a “simple, clear summary of what happened.”

It is below, with a first cut at some of the factors involved.

WHAT HAPPENED —

U. S. Senate – Assuming Florida (recount) and Mississippi (runoff) don’t change results (and we don’t expect them to), Republicans kept control and impressively gained a net of three  seats

Democrat LOSSES – Heitkamp in North Dakota, McCaskill in Missouri, Donnelly in Indiana, Nelson in Florida – were not unexpected, but some of the MARGINS (McCaskill, Donnelly) were worse than we expected.  

Democrats picked up one seat:  Nevada.   

And 2020 does NOT look promising for Democrats to win back control, particularly with Trump on the Presidential ballot.  Although Republicans have 21 incumbents up for re-election in two years, most are in VERY red states.

U.S. House – Again, with some recounts outstanding, the Democrats took control of the house, apparently picking up 38 seats and losing four, not a net gain of 34 (they needed 23; we predicted 25-30).  

Pelosi seems likely to survive as Speaker, a job she first won 16 years ago . . . perhaps, with their overreaching investigations and threats of impeachment, suicidal for Democrats in 2020.

Governors – Democrats picked up a net of seven state governorships (we had predicted four-to-six), including Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and KANSAS, for Heaven’s sake, where the Democrats also ousted a Republican congressman with a Democrat LGBT Native American mixed martial artist woman).

But Democrats lost chances to re-take Ohio, Georgia and Florida (while keeping, no surprise, California, New York and Pennsylvania).

Attorneys General – Democrats appear to have picked up four states(including Michigan) and will now occupy 27 of 51 (counting DC) AGs’ offices.

Legislatures – It appears Democrats gained control of seven legislative chambers, including New York Senate, (tho’ may have lost Alaska), gaining more than 323 (so far) legislative seats (while losing another 100 to GOP).

Ballot Issues –

·        Electric utilities won big in Nevada and Arizona, with defeat of retail choice in Nevada and renewables in Arizona, although a renewables measure passed in Nevada.

·        Fracking restrictions failed in Colorado

·        Felons got voting rights restored in Florida

·        Rent control was defeated in California

·        A gas tax was sustained in California but defeated in Missouri

·        Water bonds were defeated in California

·        Minimum wage passed in Missouri and Arkansas

·        Liberalizing marijuana passed in Missouri, Michigan and Utah, but failed in North Dakota

·        Medicaid got expanded in three western states, Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah

·        Four states – Michigan, Missouri, Utah, and Colorado – made redistricting less partisan

·        Marcy’s law passed in in six states:  Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oklahoma

HOW IT HAPPENED –

  • In the heaviest turn-out in a mid-year election since I was in high school 52 years ago, Americans sent a very mixed message:  A more GOP Senate, a massive shift to DEM House, more DEM Governors, and more DEM AGs and Legislators . . . but still 600 short of when President Obama took office.
  • Trump’s personal campaign priorities won Senate races in Missouri, Florida, and Indiana . . . but lost in Montana, Nevada and West Virginia.
  • The road to Dems’ House victory – the “revolt of suburbia” – went through major suburbs in Washington, D.C., Chicago, Kansas City, Oklahoma City (in the “reddest” state in America), Dallas, Houston, Denver, etc., even Salt Lake City.  It appears it wascollege-educated women who made a critical difference (albeit not enough in theAtlanta suburbs).
  • As we take refuge, retreating further into our tribes, America is an increasingly deeply divided nation.  Many red states seemed to get redder, blue states bluer.
  • It was the most expensive mid-term election in history.  I’ve read estimates of more than $5 billion.  It was also one of the nastiest.  The two seem somehow related.

John 

Election Eve Analysis

To Hawthorn Friends & Family –

‘Tis the day before the most expensive (and, possibly, most bitter) mid-term election in American history.  To borrow a phrase, in 36 hours “our long national nightmare” will be over (actually an even longer nightmare – the campaigns for 2020 – has already started).

We owe you our “best guess” on potential outcomes.  In the past I have often been wrong . . . but in grand consultant tradition, always been certain.  This year – see disclaimers below – I am less certain than ever.

That said, the most useful and, clearly, the most certain thing we can provide you today is linked here, produced by and shared with the kind permission of our esteemed colleague Rhodes Cook, publisher of “The Rhodes Cook Letter”.  It is a list of the states in order of poll closing times with some key statistics on the ’16 Presidential vote and the Senate and Governor candidates running this year.  This will do you more good tomorrow night than anything else we can say or share.

How Things Look This Election Eve — 

U.S. Senate – We continue to believe the GOP has at least an 80% chance of holding control of the Senate.  There are just too many endangered Democrats running in too many states, 10 in states President Trump carried by an average of 16.2 points (from 0.2 points in Michigan, to 36 points in North Dakota and 42 points in West Virginia).

Although late polling seems to show some momentum for McCaskill inMissouri, Donnelly in Indiana, and Nelson in Florida, the harsh reality is that to take control of the Senate, the Democrats have to PICK UP TWO GOP SEATS (best hopes Nevada and Arizona, both within the margin of error of polls; lesser hopes in Tennessee and Mississippi) AND HOLD ALL THEIR CURRENT SEATS (including very tough races in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Florida . . . a number of which were on President Trump’s whirlwind tour of 11 rallies in recent days).

U.S. House – We continue to believe the Democrats have a 70% chance of gaining control of the U.S. House.  They need a net gain of 23 seats.  It does not appear the “blue wave” will crest at the once-forecast 35 or 40 seats, but they should pick up 25-30.

Big states that will decide the House outcome:  Pennsylvania and California. Of Minnesota’s eight districts, five are targeted by one or the other parties. Virginia could flip a number of districts.  And even Kansas could flip two (perhaps requiring a re-write of What’s The Matter With Kansas?)

Earliest races to watch outcomes:  If, as former Congressman Tom Davis noted, the GOP’s Barbara Comstock WINS re-election in Virginia’s 10th District there is no “blue wave” for Democrats . . . and if the GOP’s David Brat LOSES re-election in Virginia’s 7th District (which the GOP has held since 1968), there could be a very real “blue wave.”

The generic ballot favors Democrats by (Real Clear Politics average) almost eight points . . . and Democrats need an 8+ point advantage to win control of a Gerrymandered House.  The most noticeable element in generic ballot polls we’ve seen recently are the enormous gender gap (men marginally want a Republican congress, women overwhelmingly a Democrat) and the even more enormous education gap (college educated favor Democrats, non-college educated favor Republicans).  In this year of record numbers of women Senate, House, gubernatorial and legislatives candidates, this gender gap may decide the election.

This year could set a record for INDICTED House members being re-elected, with two members, Duncan Hunter (CA-50) and Chris Collins (NY-27) under active indictment – Hunter on 60 felony charges and Collins on 11 felony charges – and awaiting trial . . . but with both leading in their respective polls.

Governors – We continue to believe the Democrats have a 90% chance of picking up four to six Governor offices and as many as 450+ state legislative seats (having lost more than 950 in the Obama years).   Democrat pick-ups look VERY LIKELY in Illinois and New Mexico, INCREASINLGY LIKELY in Michigan, Kansas, Florida and Nevada . . . and POSSIBLE in Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Maine andmaybe even Georgia (which, with a third candidate drawing four percent in the polls, may well go to a December 4th run-off).

Democrats WILL hold the Governor’s office in California and New York . . . and SHOULD hold on to the Governor’s office in Colorado, Oregon (a closer race than it should have ever been)and Connecticut (where the Democrat incumbent is the most unpopular Governor in America, making holding it a challenge but against a weak GOP candidate) . . . while New Hampshire GOP Governor Sununu was expected to win re-election handily in race that has closed very late.  Two Republican governors in normally VERY Democrat states – Massachusetts and Maryland — are expected to win re-election easily.

THE big question/confusion is Alaska.  The incumbent Independent Governor has – very late – “withdrawn” from the race after his 75-year-old Lieutenant Governor resigned after “inappropriate” comments in what Reuters described as a “murky scandal” . . . however, the Governor’s name remains on the ballot (withdrawal came too late for removal), so post-withdrawal two-candidate polls are, in our view, worthless.  Nevertheless, they show a slight lead for the Democrat, former Anchorage Mayor and U.S. Senator Mark Begich.

Ballot Issues – There are reportedly 155 issues on the November 6 ballot . . .  including among 11 in California major gas tax and water bond issues . . . among six in Nevada, electricity retail choice and renewables (on their way to being a $100 million fight) . . . an equally expensively fought renewables fight (among five ballot issues) in Arizona . . . a surprisingly high-spending campaign on voter restoration for felons in Florida (among nine issues) . . . marijuana legalization in four states – including three competing questions on it in Missouri (where a gas tax and minimum wage are also on the ballot and labor eager to repeat their August victory over right-to-work) – along with Michigan, North Dakota, and Utah . . . minimum wage also on the ballot in Arkansas . . . and Medicaid expansion on the ballot in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and Utah.

The Predictor’s Dilemma:  Turnout looks big, but for/against whom — ??

Across the country, we’re hearing lots of reports of highest-ever interest, record-setting early voting (starting as long ago as September 21 in Minnesota . . . before the Kavanaugh vote, the caravan heading north in Mexico, the pipe bombings, the Pittsburgh synagogue tragedy, the deployment of U.S. troops to the Mexican border for the first time since we went chasing Pancho Villa in 1916 . . . but I digress about early voting) and clear intention to vote.  But whom does what may be historically high (at least since 1994) mid-year turnout favor?

Anecdotally, a lot of the early voters appear older and white, which usually advantages the GOP.  But 25% of the early voters in Texas have never voted in a primary, suggesting they are truly first-time voters and, arguably Democrats.  Women are, clearly, more engaged this year and on the generic congressional ballot heavily favor Democrats, less so those without a college education.  There has also been a massive effort to register minorities and turn out millennials.  President Trump has focused media and political chatter – as only he can – on races where turning out his supporters is crucial . . . but might he turn out more of his adversaries than his supporters . .  or have as little effect as he had on the Alabama special senate election and run-off last year?

We really won’t know any of that until well after the polls close, the exit polls (being done by two competing organizations this year, for the first time in memory) reported, the votes counted, and the analysis done.

The possible swings in WHO turns out and in what NUMBERS make this election even harder to predict than normal.  And a lot of races are within the “margin of error” on polling:  Senate in Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Nevada, Arizona . . . and Governor in Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, among others.

The Biggest Potential Upsets?

Still bearing the scars of mis-calling 2016, we would be foolish not to recognize the absolute possibilities of upsets, even big upsets.  We’re not predicting ANY of these – indeed, we would put a 10% or less chance on any one of them – but if any happen they will dominate the morning-after news and talk about this election for months/years to come (o.k., until overtaken in a few days with media consumed with 2020).

  1. Republican Ted Cruz loses in Texas, which seems unlikely despite Beto O’Rourke’s exciting campaign, but one which failed to give Republicans, among whom Cruz has dangerously low support, reason to cross over to vote Democrat.
  1. Democrat Robert Menendez loses in New Jersey, where polls show him recovering . . . proving that even when the citizens of the Garden State know that, without question, their U.S. Senator is a crook, they’re willing to re-elect him.
  1. The Blue Wave unexpectedly dies out, leaving the Republicans in control of the House and President Trump triumphant in the White House.
  1. The Blue Wave becomes an unexpected tsunami and sweeps the Democrats into control of the Senate.

We’ll be back in touch on Wednesday, trying to explain what happened.

John

Midterm 2018 Headlines

 

In the shadow of the architectural gem, Union Station, was privileged to address the Kansas City Chamber, Kansas City Power & Light and Hallmark Corporation on my measure of the midterms a week out.

A photo finish is predicted in the governor’s race just across the state line in Kansas where independent Greg Orman could keep Democrat Laura Kelly from reclaiming the office for her party – Kathleen Sebelius the last Democrat to hold the title (though the party came close four years ago.)  Secretary of State Kris Kobach is counting on Trump coattails, which carried him to the Republican nomination, to work their magic next Tuesday.

The suburban fabric of Republican Congressman Kevin Yoder’s metro Kansas City seat is the petri dish for this year’s thriving pink wave underpinning the predicted blue wave.  But here Democrat Sharice Davids is capitalizing on a President Trump 16 points underwater.

In the neighboring congressional district, an open seat, Republican nominee Steve Watkins is fending off charges, not only of an embellished resume, but  just-breaking news placing him in the crosshairs of #MeToo and the family values caucus.

Kansas Republicans may be less stressed about the re-election prospects of their attorney general, Derek Schmidt, who, according to Governing magazine, “is well-positioned to win a third term.”  Keep an eye on him since his office in every state is seen as the bull pen for aspiring governors or U.S. Senators.

In one of the nation’s most contentious U.S. Senate contests, carefully tracked by this media market, Missouri Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley is trending ahead of Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill.

If the caravan traipsing north through Mexico is this cycle’s October surprise, it is set to the backdrop of a deeply divided electorate as measured in the most recent NBC-WSJ poll, in the field rolling into this past weekend.  As the NYT’s Lisa Lerer put it in the context of pipe bombs and Pittsburgh, “many voters have seemed to retreat even more into their corners as a result of the discord.”

Wave Election Forecasting

Honored to participate recently at the National Archives forum on wave elections hosted by the U.S.Association of Former Members of Congress.  The discussion can be viewed on YouTube or on C-SPAN’s website.

In projecting the outlook for this year’s midterms, I observed that, looking back on the last 13 non-presidential election years, when the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent his party loses an average of 40 seats.  Donald Trump’s approval is now in the 43 to 45 percent range leading me to predict a Blue Wave delivering a Democratic pickup in the House approaching 30 seats.

My thanks to U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress for organizing this event.  Was truly a privilege to share perspectives with such esteemed alumni of the U.S. House as “Watergate baby” Governor Jim Blanchard (D- Mich., U.S. House 1975 – 1983) and the Honorable Ann Marie Buerkle (R – NY, 2011 – 2013), Hon. Tom Davis (R – Va., 1995 – 2009) and Hon. Marjorie Margolies (D – Pa. 1992 – 1995).  Also, great to see in the audience The Honorable Barbara Kennelly (D – Ct., 1982 – 1999).

 

With. Left to right, Hon. Ann Marie Buerkle, Governor Jim Blanchard, Hon. Tom Davis, Hon. Marjorie Margolies and panel moderator David Hawkings (former editor of CQ Roll Call).
All Photos (c) Bruce Guthrie

Eyebrow-Raising November 7 Headlines

To Hawthorn Friends & Family –

 

We are approaching the home stretch. Contemplate these eye-raising headlines at dawn November 7 that will have you brewing another pot of coffee:

1) From the streets of Bakersfield? While Nancy Pelosi held the Speaker’s gavel not long ago, Republicans can do their California dreaming too. They wonder if the “Brett bounce” benefits the Brats over the Spanbergers? Will the red wall result in Kevin McCarthy commanding the clerk to call the roll?This POS/CNBC poll points to Republicans holding their own.

2) Polls show Ted Cruz to have enough reliable support to survive his challenge, but as Dallas Morning News political columnist Gromer Jeffers, Jr. speculates, for Beto O’Rourke on election day, “his base, crossover voters, independents” may all just perfectly align. 

3) New Jersey Democrats are banking on Senator Menendez riding the coattails of their down-ballot slate. He’s given opposition researchers plenty of ammunition to use against him, the latest in this #MeToo moment, reviving reports of his frolicking with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic. Will the persistent testing of his political durability deliver a Hugan win?

4) According to the Tampa Bay Times’ Adam Smith, “It doesn’t bode well for Republicans that the Republican National Committee today sent out a news release noting that ‘absentee voting in the Sunshine State (is) set to begin soon,’ when in fact it has been well underway for weeks.” While in his next breath he asserts “Democrats would be foolish to underestimate” the GOP’s Florida operation, statewide campaign dynamics are blown away by Michael’s aftermath. Governor Scott may be off the campaign trail through the election leaving it to $100 million in TV ads to deny Bill Nelson re-election. But no one saw Gillum grabbing the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, raising speculation that the red tide here may be more marine than political science next month.

5) As we approached Labor Day, Dan Balz speculated about Chuck Schumer becoming Majority Leader. According to the respected Post political writer “Bruce Mehlman, who worked in the Bush White House, suggests that’s not out of the question. He did a study looking at 333 Senate races in 10 midterm elections dating back to 1978. He concluded that what matters most ‘is not being from the party that holds the White House, regardless of a state’s partisan lean.’” A week or so later the WaPo’s Plum Line blogger laid out the narrow paths for a Democratic takeover.

And finally, while polling portends an implausible Beto upset in Texas let’s not write off the congressman’s future just yet. Consider that early handicapping of the 2020 Democratic presidential sweepstakes has him running tied with $100 million-man Michael Bloomberg among the top ten candidates (the former mayor’s political spending in just this cycle). While Beto has been barnstorming all 254 counties in the Lone Star State, his House colleagues like John Delaney, Tim Ryan and Seth Moulton have been doing their spadework in Iowa and New Hampshire but each register less than a percentage point in the early surveys.

Election Landscape Updates

As we survey the election landscape three weeks out the House is getting bluer and the Senate redder. Republicans are retreating in vulnerable congressional contests even conceding Kansas 3 to a Native American LGBT lawyer.

Meanwhile. Mitch McConnell has ordered more Majority Leader business cards. North Dakota is breaking Republican. Manchin is likely to survive but tightening in that West Virginia race is encouraging to R’s. Buckeye State Republicans are banking on decades-old divorce records to bounce Sherrod Brown with #MeToo momentum but that race has stubbornly clung to the Lean D column.

In New Jersey, Garden State voters all seem to acknowledge their senior senator is a crook, but do they care? Democrats seem poised to snare 4 to 6 governorships next month and collect 400 or so state legislative seats after losing 900 during the Obama years.

Stay tuned for my outlook on November 7 headlines you may not be expecting and my prediction on a 2020 White House contender who, this cycle, may win by losing.