Some great take-aways from National Journal’s political briefing today by the Charlie Cook team:
- Wave election? Dems are a motivated base but suburban toss-up seats are key battleground.
- Turnout Trends from 9 special elections this year suggest polarized electorate with Dem edge on the “enthusiasm quotient.”
- Driving issues: low jobless rate and tax cut (through latter petering out) work to GOP advantage but health care cost anxiety weighing heavily on voter minds.
- Dem dampers: improving economy, GOP redistricting advantage in state legislatures and Dems playing defense in Senate contests.
- GOP gap: trade! Chinese retaliation especially in farm belt, ripple in Rustbelt.
- Watch Florida and Illinois competitive governors races this year with 2020 redistricting at stake
- Looks like Longhorn State longing for flipping Ted Cruz seat a “long shot”
Lasting impression? Separation of families at the border: 2/3 disapproval, strong with moderates and women in swing districts. Is executive order too little too late? Can Trump and GOP recover from this by November?