Preliminary Thoughts on the 2019 Races

To Hawthorn Friends & Family —

In the absence of any recent musing by us on the political scene (what, we ask ourselves, could possibly need to be said that isn’t already being said, over and over?), to my utter amazement I’ve been getting emails from folks asking if they’ve been dropped from our distribution lists and actually asking for our current thoughts.

I’m not sure there is much to add to what, as noted, is being said, but in the interest of at least highlighting items that we’ve noted recently, let me share:

  1. The President’s Fundraising Advantage

The Trump campaign this week announced they had raised $30 million in the first quarter of this year.  I was struck by:

  • Although likely to INCREASE as the election gets closer, that’s an ANNUAL fundraising rate of $120 million a year.
  • It is more than the top two Democratic contenders combined.
  • Of President Trump’s contributions 99% are $200 or less — a stunning demonstration of small donor support — with the average contribution $34.
  • He has $40 million cash on hand.

In the immortal words of the late Deep Throat of long-ago Watergate fame, Follow the money.”

And that wisdom applies not only to totals, but also to SIZE of gifts and number of true small donors.  Not even Bernie Sanders – or Elizabeth Warren, who has eschewed major contributions – can begin to approach 99% small donors.  That’s an impressive base of voters and potential volunteers (IF the Trump campaign can figure out how to use them to localize and personalize the Trump message).

Where is all this money coming from? Seniors are part of the answer. See this week’s story from Axios where Trump is targeting Seniors on Facebook over other age demographics.

I was also reminded of Deep Throat’s wise admonition reading a MoScout story this week about Missouri Democratic State Auditor – and the party’s best hope for a gubernatorial candidate in 2020 – Nicole Galloway’s fundraising.  It noted she had “raised $144,194, not too far from the amount raised by Mike Parson, the sitting governor, $198,931.”  

BUT as MoScout noted – and God IS in the details (of finances AND politics) – “If she dives into this race, Galloway will have to redouble her fundraising because Team Parson holds a big money lead.  His campaign committee has more than $1 million cash on-hand (Galloway has $65K COH) and Parson’s allied PAC, Uniting Missouri, has $2.3 million on-hand.”

There is a WORLD of difference between trailing in recent fundraising by only $50,000 and trailing in cash on-hand by $3.2 million.

In this rapidly changing world of politics, “Follow the money” remains unchanged.

  1. The RNC’s Fundraising Advantage

Anyone “following the money” would also note that as of March 1, 2019, the FEC reported the Democratic National Committee had cash on hand of $8,660,790, with debts of $4,590,612, a net of $3,960,178 while the Republican National Committee had cash of hand of $31,141,261, with NO debt, an eight-to-one advantage to the GOP.

  1. Categorizing the Democratic Aspirants

With no hope of yet being able to handicap their prospects, I am currently grouping the Democrats into two categories:

  • “The Over-the-Hill Gang”  (Sanders at 77, Biden at 76, Warren at 69, etc. vs. Trump at 72 and laughably irrelevant William Weld at 73) and
  • “The Not Quite Ready for Prime Time Players” (Harris, O’Rourke, Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Booker, Castro, etc.).

There is, of course, a third category, “Legends in their Own Minds” (to borrow a phrase from the late beloved Bob Strauss), those hopelessly tilting at windmills who are unlikely to ever break through the initial barrier and start to be taken seriously (Swalwell, Gabbard, Ryan, Delaney, Yang, etc.).  And while nearly doomed to stay in that hopeless category, there are some appealing would-be contenders, one, or two, or even three of whom might catch on enough to become at least minor contenders (Inslee, Hickenlooper, Bennett, etc.).

  1. The Front-Loaded Democratic Calendar

Despite the 20-or-more candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, it COULD be an early decision.

As University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato pointed out recently in his always “must read” Crystal Ball, “almost two-thirds of the total number of pledged delegates will be awarded in the first seven weeks of the nominating season, from February 3, 2020 through March 17, 2020.”

Indeed, as he points out (and we highlight the MAJOR states), in only two weeks, between Super Tuesday (California, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia) on March 3rd, thru March 10th (Michigan and Ohio), thru March 17th (Florida and Illinois), 60% of the Democratic delegates will be awarded.

It is, of course, NOT certain at all there will be an early winner. Iowa and New Hampshire – grossly NON-representative of the Democrats’ voting base – don’t account for all that many delegates and Sanders or Warren may have a “lock” on neighboring New Hampshire.

Minorities start appearing at the polls in Nevada and, massively, in South Carolina (each also in other ways non-representative of the rest of America).

Among the big early states, Sen. Kamala Harris may have a lock on California, Beto O’Rourke on Texas and Warren on Massachusetts . . . leaving the big early battleground states of Florida, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Two other interesting changes this year:

  • Early voting in California starts the same day as the Iowa caucuses and well before New Hampshire’s primary.  Without formally threatening their – totally indefensible – “first in the nation status,” it does diminish/skew their impact.
  • In 2020, Super Delegates (760 out of some 4,530 total delegates) can only vote on the first ballot IF the nomination has already been decided by the primaries.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball actually explains this arcania in an intelligible manner . . . and makes the point the last President whose nomination went to a second ballot was FDR in ’32 (when two-thirds of the delegates were still required for nomination) and the last nominee whose nomination went to a second  ballot was Adlai Stevenson in ’52.  Why DO we have conventions any more, anyway?

  1. The Senate Looks Grim for a Democratic Takeover in 2020

While 22 of the 35 seats up in 2020 are GOP seats, prospects are NOT good for a Democratic takeover.

In his last report, the inimitable Charlie Cook viewed NONE of the Republican seats a “Lean Democrat” or “Toss-Up” . . .  and only three as “Lean Republican” (the rest being “Likely Republican” or “Solid Republican”).  He counts those three “Lean Republican” seats as Arizona (McSally), Colorado (Gardner) and Maine (Collins, whose DEMOCRAT colleague from West Virginia, Joe Manchin, has already endorsed her).  Any of the three COULD become a serious race, but not without a serious challenger, which each currently lacks.  While Sen. Collins does not have an opponent yet, Democratic fury at her Kavanaugh vote has already raised over $3 million to her future opponent.

Of the 13 Democratic seats, Charlie considers 11 of them safe for re-election, two “Likely D” and nine “Solid D.”  However, he lists one – Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama – as “Toss Up.”

While I’ve learned the perils of disagreeing with Charlie, I’d push it farther to the GOP, to at least “Lean Republican” if not “Likely Republican.”  Jones beat the infamous Roy Moore by 21,924 votes in his special election runoff that saw 22,852 write-in votes posted (mostly by Republicans disgusted with Moore, such as the senior Senator, Richard Shelby).  It is a state President Trump carried by 62.08% to 34.06%.  There are NO Democrats in statewide office.  A pathetically weak GOP candidate for governor won in 2018 with 59.5% of the vote.  Doug Jones is a quietly but strongly impressive public servant and a solid candidate, but his prospects are dim in that state.

So, instead of gaining the two seats they need to take the majority, we believe the Democrats will actually LOSE one seat and the GOP will keep the Senate.

  1. And Governors Don’t Look Much Better for Dems.

There are 14 governors offices on the ballot this cycle, three this year (Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucky) and 11 next year . . . a total of  five Democrat and nine Republican.  Charlie counts NONE as “Toss Up” and only two Democrat (Louisiana and Montana) as “Lean Democrat” and only one Republican (Kentucky) as “Lean Republican.”

We agree with Charlie and see little change among Governors . . . indeed, we’d call Kentucky as “Likely Republican.”  The incumbent seems likely to hold on to Louisiana and we don’t know enough about Montana to have a view.

  1. Can the Democrats Hold the U. S. House?

It is, in all honestly, too early to tell.  But we haven’t seen much to make us believe political attitudes have changed since November, 2018, when the Democrats came from behind to sweep control.

Of course, President Trump will be ON the ballot in 2020, a HUGE change from 2018.  And it’s clear House members – from Speaker Pelosi to the young firebrands – will be major attack targets for the President. 

  1. What We Really Need!

I have been working on a speech for a group of historic-minded benefactors in the old Missouri frontier town of Arrow Rock, who will gather there to honor my dear friend Chet Breitwieser as the new president of the Friends of Arrow Rock.

That little town in the tumultuous years before (and just after) the Civil War that was family home to three governors of Missouri, up the road from the farm of the state’s embattled chief justice, and (in the person of one of America’s most famous artists, George Caleb Bingham), home for a state treasurer and state adjutant general . . . all citizens – not professional career politicians – willing to serve in high public office in horribly difficult times.

Appealing for similar citizen involvement today, I intend to quote – with apologies for its male-gender foucs, typical of the era in which it was written – a poem by Josiah Gilbert Holland:

GOD, give us men!
A time like this demands
Strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands;
Men whom the lust of office does not kill;
Men whom the spoils of office can not buy;
Men who possess opinions and a will;
Men who have honor; men who will not lie;
Men who can stand before a demagogue
And damn his treacherous flatteries without winking!
Tall men, sun-crowned, who live above the fog
In public duty, and in private thinking;
For while the rabble, with their thumb-worn creeds,
Their large professions and their little deeds,
Mingle in selfish strife, lo! Freedom weeps,
Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps.

John

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