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Monday, the 23rd of January, 2012

To Hawthorn Friends & Family -- 

• Not only did Gingrich win 40.4% of the GOP primary vote to Romney’s 27.8% (showing, once again, Romney’s inability to break through a “ceiling” in the high-20%’s) . . . Newt carried 43 of South Carolina’s 46 counties.

Romney carried only three counties – around Columbia (state capital and home of state university), Charleston (reasonably prosperous port/tourism area), and Beaufort (another historic/tourism spot with lots of retirees from out of state just south of Charleston).

In Charleston County, Mitt beat Newt only 36% - 32.6%. In the Columbia area, Mitt beat Newt in Richland County 37% - 31%. And only in Beaufort County did Romney break 40%, beating Newt 43% - 35.3%.


• Newt won big with conservatives (45% Gingrich, 23% Santorum, and in third place, Romney 20%) . . .


• moved to a surprise win with those who say defeating Obama as the main factor in their vote (48% Gingrich, 39% Romney) . . .


• and, despite his ex-wife interview about his alleged (and strongly denied) request for an “open marriage,” won among women (36% - 30%) and married women (39% - 29%) . . .


• winning as well among the 65% of SC voters who identified themselves as evangelical/born-again (42% - 22%) . . .


• and, even, won among Independents (30% - 27%).


• With two debates coming up in Florida this week, it is worth noting that with the S.C. voters (13%) who said debates were “the most important factor,” Newt took a stunning 59%. Among those who said debates were “important,” Newt took 47%.


• Newt won in all age groups except 18-29 (which Paul, as usual, carried with his anti-war, anti-drug law messages).

Most important for Florida, Newt ran particularly strongly in SC among voters 65 and older, winning 45% of their votes, with Romney at 37%.


• Another finding potentially critical for Florida: Among the 54% who say they decided late, Gingrich amassed a 20-point lead . . . and it was the largest turnout for a presidential primary in South Carolina history (refuting the experts who have been saying voter anger and negative advertising will lead to lower turnouts).


• Finally, in another finding critical for Florida (see below), among the 63% of S.C. voters who said the economy was the MOST important, they voted for Gingrich over Romney 40% - 32%. And those who said the federal deficit was most important voted Gingrich over Romney 45% - 23%.

Romney decisively – and with nearly all segments of GOP voters – lost South Carolina . . . perhaps even more than Newt won it. Romney’s great advantage – his perceived electability – seems to be slipping away.

So what does it mean for Florida???

When the pundits say, “Florida is not South Carolina,” among the differences they may be addressing are:

Population – South Carolina has 4.6 million, Florida 18.8 million, a four-fold difference. It is a huge state with a lot of very expensive television markets and diverse, multi-lingual audiences. North Florida is like South Georgia and South Alabama. South Florida is a combination of New York and Latin America. In between, lies the Disney – and political – “Magic Kingdom” of the I-4 corridor from Daytona to Orland to Tampa/St. Pete.

Minorities – South Carolina is 27.9% African American, Florida is only 15.9%. However, South Carolina is 5.1% Latin or Hispanic, while Florida is 22.4%.

Age – In South Carolina, 13.3% of the population is 65+. Florida’s 65+ population is 17.4% (highest in US)

Florida's is also a "closed" primary. Only Republicans can vote; no Independents. That has to help Newt and hurt Mitt.

But perhaps the critical difference – especially compared with the pre-recession Florida of 2008 when the last Presidential primary was held – may be the economy. Writing about Obama’s – and they could as correctly been writing about Romney’s – chance in Florida, “Politico” wrote last week:

“No other state, with the possible exceptions of Nevada and Arizona, has suffered so much during the Great Recession, and voters remain in a surly, unpredictable mood . . . The unemployment rate is a dismal 10 percent in Florida. That’s down 2 percent since 2010 but still well above the national average of 8 percent. The state’s housing market, ravaged when the real estate bubble popped, still hasn’t recovered. More than 40 percent of mortgaged property-owners in Florida owe more than their property is worth . . . double the nationwide average.”

“Voters is a surly, unpredictable mood” HAS to work to the advantage of New Gingrich, whom one “talking head” described this morning as “the candidate of the white, working middle class.” Romney won’t be helped among seniors in Florida by his recent attacks on “entitlements” . . . and he will be even more hurt by his now proposed Tuesday release of his tax returns, sure to show numbers beyond the wildest fantasy of a “white, working middle class voter.” (Of course, the only thing to hurt him more was his inexplicable and inarticulate decision to delay releasing his tax returns until now.)

Voters are mad. So is Newt Gingrich. He gives voice to what the ECONOMIST called “the grievances of a suffering Middle America.” He is in touch with voters’ bitter feelings in a very personal way in which Romney seems unable to close his “distance gap.”

Despite the inflow of Yankee “snowbirds” are retirees, with whom a former “Massachusetts moderate” governor may play well, much of Florida is a SOUTHERN state. Newt is a Southerner. He may have gone off to Washington, but he remains one of them, someone who speaks their language and, even more importantly, communicates effectively in all the UN-spoken ways of the South.

A critical aspect of Florida is that it is a “winner-take-all” primary, with the single winner picking up ALL of the delegates. Ron Paul has signaled he will largely/entirely skip Florida and head on to proportional delegate primaries/caucuses. There were rumors yesterday Rick Santorum – although declaring “on to Florida” – was considering the same thing, hoping to steadily pick up delegates in proportional states until Newt suffers a final “flameout.”

The extent to which neither campaign in Florida and/or are marginalized by their South Carolina results, has to help Newt coalesce the conservative vote. At least it’s hard for me to see either a Santorum or Paul voter shifting to Romney.

Will Money, Endorsements and Organization Make the Difference in Florida???

Romney has reportedly already spent nearly $8 Million on advertising in Florida, a barrage Newt can’t match even if his Sugar Daddy, gaming mogul Sheldon Adelson, puts another $5 Million into his SuperPac. And Romney’s ads drew serious blood from Newt in Iowa.

On the other hand, the smartest politico I know in Florida said, “People are talking a lot more about debates than about ads.” And Florida is a state over-saturated with negative ads in last year’s governor’s race.

Politicos we talk with in Florida have been telling us for weeks that “everyone” has endorsed Romney. “Everyone who counts” in the Republican “establishment” – officials and “kingmakers” and major funders – are “all” for Romney, we’re told. (Of course, the last time an establishment – if somewhat estranged – figure faced a challenge in Florida, Governor Charlie Crist was forced out of the GOP U.S. Senate primary by newcomer Marco Rubio.)

Do advertising advantages and establishment endorsements matter in today’s social media world? And, by the way, if “everyone” in the establishment is for Romney, why did the still very popular former Governor Jeb Bush on Saturday reaffirm his intention to stay “neutral” in the Florida primary? Of course, many of his surrogates are firmly in line for Romney . . . but, as he noted, he has friends supporting both candidates. Could he have resisted endorsing Romney is Mitt had won South Carolina?

AND Governor Perry had some supporters, including leaders in the Florida House and Senate. If they now go to Newt – and they’ve resisted Romney so far – that will help. And, of course, Newt has his own “establishment” endorser in his state chair Bill McCollum (former Congressman, Attorney General and US Senate candidate, about as establishment as one can get).

It is a universal “truth” on the campaign trail that, with his disdain for strategists (and any mere mortal lacking his genius) Newt has no organization, a shambles compared to the “best money can buy” that Romney enjoys. For instance, estimates on absentee ballots Romney's campaign have already collected run from 125,000 to over 200,000 . . . while Newt's campaign has probably collected none.

Yet the ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION noted Sunday that Gingrich has 14 staffers in seven campaign offices in Florida, with chairmen in all of the Sunshine State’s counties. That is, surely, pathetically less than Romney, but it IS at least the semblance of an organization. That it is unequal to its task in the next ten days is probably even more true . . . but given Newt’s momentum and Romney’s collapse, does that matter? Probably less than the expected Gingrich inability to fund an advertising campaign . . . tho’ his SuperPac is quoted this morning as expecting “donations to start flooding in.”

There is, clearly, a chance Newt could win an upset in Florida . . . but historic upset it would be, given that in the last (January 13-17) CNN/Time poll Romney was leading Newt 43-18, with Santorum in second place at 19 . . . but that was, obviously, before Newt swept South Carolina.

We’ll be watching Alex Gage’s “National Dialogue Monitor” daily for developments, changes in volume and favorability of coverage, not only in the “old” media but in the increasingly important “new” social media, as well.

Despite all this, is the fundamental “unlikeable-ness” of Mitt Romney – his inability to connect with common people, exemplified by his vast wealth, coupled with his willingness to flip-flop to any position to advance his career – going to allow Newt Gingrich to continue to careen from primary to primary, with no organization and hand-to-mouth funding, to the floor of a brokered GOP convention? It’s surely possible . . . and the pundits were talking about in Sunday morning.

Can Newt Win the GOP Nomination???

Even if Newt wins Florida – which, at the moment, is a clear fantasy only in HIS mind – I think all that means is an increasingly drawn-out fight for a Republican nomination that I still can’t believe the GOP will give to Newt . . . however more populist, grassroots, and Tea Party-dominated the national party is becoming . . . a changing party base with which Romney is clearly out of touch. This IS the party that, in 2010, nominated Christine O’Donnell for the U.S. Senate in Delaware, Ken Buck in Colorado, and Sharron Angle in Nevada (all of whom lost, costing the GOP control of the Senate), two of which states (Nevada and Colorado) have GOP caucuses right after the Florida primary. The GOP nominated as well the Tea Party’s Nikki Haley for Governor of South Carolina (who won in 2010, but whose endorsement this year failed to deliver for Romney and whose election day predictions of a Romney victory last Saturday marked her as delusional).

But, Romney DID win this year’s New Hampshire primary soundly and nearly won Iowa. Bob Dole lost five out of the first six primaries in 1996 (which, I realize, might have suggested why he wouldn’t be a victorious nominee in November).

And, Gingrich DID run a poor fourth in Iowa (Santorum first with 24.6%, Romney second with 24.5%, Paul third with 21.4%, and Newt fourth with 13.3%, barely ahead of Perry with 10.3%).

Gingrich also DID run a poor fourth in New Hampshire – despite his having the MANCHESTER UNION LEADER’S endorsement – with Romney’s getting 39.3%, Paul’s getting 22.9%, Huntsman’s getting 16.9% and Gingrich’s getting 9.4%, just a handful of votes head of fifth-place finisher Santorum, also with about 9.4%.

I think the currently sometime appearing “Nice Newt” is fundamentally still the “Bad Newt” best described by John Kass in Sunday’s CHICAGO TRIBUNE as a “bully and a blowhard lacking restraint.” I think he’s as likely to commit political self-desctruction by something he says/does as he is to be rolled over by what may be becoming an increasingly irrelevant Romney organization/advertising/establishment advantage.

However, the fact we can even ask seriously the question of Newt’s winning the GOP nomination has to come as happy news to President Obama and his supporters..

We’ll keep watching Florida . . . and trying to see beyond.

John

John Ashford

Chairman

The Hawthorn Group, L.C.

jashford@hawthorngroup.com

703-299-4499

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