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January 31 We Will Learn if "Florida Is NOT South Carolina" . . .
John Ashford |January 23, 2012
It's not news that Newt Gingrich won a huge victory in South Carolina on Saturday . . . but the sweeping nature of his victory is impressive. Sean Trende in "Real Clear Politics" called it "an utter repudiation of Romney." more... |
Happy Holidays from The Hawthorn Group
The Hawthorn Group, LC |December 20, 2011
This year – a year full of political upheavals, with more still possible in the last two weeks – heads toward its bitter end with a lot more questions than answers more... |
The View from Across the Potomac
John Ashford |December 13, 2011
This year – a year full of political upheavals, with more still possible in the last two weeks – heads toward its bitter end with a lot more questions than answers more... |
2012 Elections Preview
John Ashford |November 09, 2011
A year from today it will – absent hanging chads – be all over but the shouting and crying. But what a year it’s shaping up to be! more... |
GOP Waiting on "Somebody"
John Ashford |May 18, 2011
The President is benefitting from the oldest rule in our business: You can’t beat somebody with nobody! Certainly the DIS-satisfaction among Republicans with their candidate choices – much, much higher than four years ago at this point – is not helping them. more... |
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Cutler Drama as Crisis Management Cautionary Tale
Harvey Valentine | January 27, 2011
Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler sustained some hard knocks on the field Sunday afternoon as his Bears were losing to the Green Bay Packers, but they paled in comparison to the hits his reputation took following his injury in the NFC title game. more... |
"Blast this Christmas music. It's joyful and triumphant!"
John Ashford | December 20, 2010
Each holiday season, we try to find a quoation to express our best hopes for you as the New Year turns. Often – with, we would argue, pardonable (and certainly consistent) favoritism – it is from a great Englishman, from Dickens, to Churchill, to, even, His Late Majesty, George VI. more... |
Picking Up The Pieces. . . | John Ashford | November 10,2010
Below is latest from the ever-insightful Steve Lombardo. We've taken the liberty of highlighting a couple of his points in red. Especially important are the GOP gains in state legislatures. Republican gains in state legislatures were in excess of 600 seats, depriving Democrats of control at exactly the wrong time due to next year's decennial reapportionment and redistricting. more... |
The Morning/Mourning After | John Ashford | November 3,2010
It was some 350 years ago – on April 20th, 1653, to be exact – that Oliver Cromwell delivered to the “Long Parliament” exactly the same message the American voters delivered yesterday. The Lord Protector said to the assembled legislators, “It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place, which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue . . . more... |
Election Day Predictions | John Ashford | November 2,2010
The polls are open. The votes are being cast. The outcome awaits . . . and will come early tonight for some, later for others, and perhaps not for days in the case of re-counts, counting write-in votes for Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, and a likely run-off in the Georgia governor's race. more... |
Thoughts on 'The Democratic Surge is Just a Fantasy' | John Ashford | October 26, 2010
One week before what seems sure to be the "historic" mid-term elections of 2010...e are not yet prepared to go quite as far as Steve in saying the Republicans will "probably (win) the Senate as well." We still think the Democrats can win three of the four states of California, Washington, Nevada and West Virginia, keeping a two-seat hold on the Senate majority (subject to switches by Lieberman, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and a yet-to-be-named third "opportunist," moves that could still reverse control). more... |
13 Days To Go | John Ashford | October 20, 2010
Steve is absolutely right about the President’s negatives’ (and the demonization of Pelosi and Reid) hurting Democrats. In West Virginia, where Obama’s favorability is DOWN 32% - 63%, popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin, running for the late (if unlamented, at least by me) Robert Byrd’s senate seat, is appearing in television commercials harshly critical of Obama (shooting his hunting rifle at the “cap and trade” target, and promising to repeal parts of “ObamaCare”) more... |
19 Days Until a Wave or a Tsunami? | John Ashford | October 13,2010
Below is the latest from our friend Steve Lombardo. While we share his (and other commentators’) disdain for the ineffectiveness of White House messaging, we would not go as far as Steve to predict a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans in the House. We DO believe the Republicans WILL take majority control of the House, comfortably gaining more than the 39 seats they need more... |
Five Weeks Out From The Mid-Term Election
John Ashford |September 30, 2010
The trends of all the metrics I read are bad for the Democrats. And while I see Democrats recovering/Republicans stumbling in a handful of races, the trend is grim for the Democrats, though there are glimmers of hope. more... |
The Campaign Wars | John Ashford |September 7, 2010
While the Labor Day weekend may be the beginning of the college football season for most “normal” American cities, in politics-obsessed Washington, it is the start of the next-to-last phase of hysteria in the run-up to the Fall mid-term elections (the last phase starting after congress adjourns in October to go home and campaign full time . . . not that that isn’t what they’ve largely been doing full-time in Washington). more... |
Eleven Weeks out from the November Midterm Election
John Ashford | August 17, 2010
It's hard – even for a "known" Obama Democrat – to argue with his assessment . . . or with the description on CNN this morning of the White House communications strategy/message as "incoherent." Why, in Heaven's name, would the President of the United States voluntarily insert himself into . . . then try to extract himself from . . . then be deeply mired in . . . the controversy over the location of a mosque in New York City? more... |
Thoughts on 'Fall Strategies Begin to Emerge'
John Ashford | August 3,2010
...“fighting the last war” – focusing on “Bush economics” – seems unlikely to work for Democrats. It’s too far into an administration to be blaming the LAST President (who, after all, shared “blame” with Democrat majorities in congress at the end) . . . and who has been totally out of the media since the day he left office. Further, voters are a lot more keenly focused on how they’re suffering NOW than how they suffered two years ago. more... |
Have Democrats Reached Their Nadir? | John Ashford | July 16, 2010
While “plugging the leak (MAYBE) gives Obama a chance to take back the political narrative,” I find it hard to see what positive political narrative he can champion. Voters continue to believe healthcare reform was a bad idea. They don’t believe the stimulus has worked or helped them. While voters hate Wall Street, it’s not clear they will appreciate the reform legislation as doing enough to protect them/punish the “bad guys.” If energy legislation is passed, it may be at enormous cost to utility customers (a.k.a. “voters”). And, most importantly, voters KNOW they are still suffering economically. Where’s the positive narrative? more... |
Thoughts on 'Obama's Summer Window of Opportunity'
John Ashford | July 2, 2010
...While I absolutely agree with Steve that voters are “burned out” and “tune out” serious news in the summer (do you remember when presidential campaigns didn’t start until after Labor Day and no one paid attention until after the World Series?), my concern is not that they’ll forget why they were mad, but if the recession continues, they’ll “tune in” in September just as mad as when they “tuned out” in July. If they take in nothing new to change their minds, why would their attitudes change? If folks’ political interests are on “summer holiday,” it will be hard for the President to get any positive traction over the summer months. more... |
Thoughts on 'Will the Oil Spill Disaster Lead to a Disaster at the Poll' | John Ashford | June 23,2010
Below is latest from Steve Lombardo. Again, given our clients’ interests in the Gulf, I don’t think it’s appropriate for me to comment on this situation which is difficult, complex and enormously challenging for all involved. more... |
Thoughts on 'The Gulf Oil Spill Is Not Katrina and Obama Is Not Bush' | John Ashford |June 3,2010
Below is Steve Lombardo’s latest analysis, this one providing an in-depth look at the political consequences of the Gulf oil spill. Since Hawthorn is currently engaged for a client with an interest in this issue, I now “have a dog in this fight” and don’t feel I ought to comment on Steve’s views. So, for once, they come without chatter from me (and, loathe as I am to admit it, Steve's comments never really need it). more... |
"How the Mighty Have Fallen" | John Ashford | May 19, 2010
Voters made lots of news at the primary polls yesterday, all consistent with Steve Lombardo's predictions yesterday . . . and none of it was good news for incumbents . . . little was good news for Democrats . . . tho' there was even bad news for Republicans . . . there was a surprise tax victory in Arizona . . . along with more scandals for each party. more... |
Thoughts on 'A Midterm Super Tuesday'
John Ashford | May 18, 2010
Below, as today's primaries are being fought – the big ones are in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas, along with a crucial tax vote in Arizona – is Steve Lombardo's latest analysis. I wanted to get it to you before the polls close. more... |
"The times, they are a changing . . ." | John Ashford | May 7, 2010
There is no better way to describe the current political environment around the world – from Thailand, to Greece, to the UK, to the US – than the words of the old Bob Dylan song from our feckless and misspent youth, “The times, they are a-changing . . . ” more... |
Thoughts on 'The Rapidly-Changing Issue Environment and What It Means' | John Ashford |May 3, 2010
The most interesting May election is in the United Kingdom. This Thursday, May 6th, the UK will elect a new parliament . . . and may see the end of two-party politics and single-party majority government for the first time in nearly 40 years. more... |
Vox Populi | John Ashford | January 20, 2010
The “voice of the people” – at least the voice of the people of Massachusetts (the only state George McGovern carried against Richard Nixon, the state that gave us Michael Dukakis) – has spoken with unmistakable clarity. more... |
The 2010 Gubernatorial Races and the MA Special Senate Election| John Ashford | January 14, 2010
Below is Steve Lombardo’s latest analysis . . . a more measured – and, in our view, more balanced and accurate – assessment than those offered by pundits predicting wholesale rejection of Democrats at the polls. But the Democrats ignore recent developments at their great peril. more... |
Resist the DC "Rush to Judgement"... but Continue to Watch the Retirements, Especially in the House | John Ashford |January 6, 2010
Whether driven by the ceaseless 24-hour news cycle, the ravenous demand of the internet for content, or just the insatiable needs of political junkies for "fixes," all events in Washington tend to be over-hyped, totally without perspective (certainly in the first day of an event). more... |
Obama, Health Care, and the Mid-Term Elections
John Ashford | December 23, 2009
While the Obama administration and congressional Democrats got themselves into a position where passing ANY form of healthcare legislation is better than being seen as unable to, public opposition to healthcare reform is so strong (36% favor, 49% oppose), it’s not clear whether, beyond demonstrating he can win a major legislative battle, the victory may NOT help the President politically (though, as noted, failure would have hurt him more) more... |
The Nature of Change | John Ashford | November 17, 2009
In 2008, voters voted, first and mostly, AGAINST Geo. W. Bush, his performance and policies, with some vote against the Republican Party’s dominance for 20 out of the last 28 years and some against believed corruption/ear-marking. The same anti-Washington/anti-past vote also doomed Hillary Clinton and John McCain. People were voting against something they believed was terribly broken. more... |
Thoughts on 'Evaluating the Post-Presidential Campaign'| John Ashford | October 29, 2009
Next Tuesday, November 3, a handful of elections – some quite interesting, as noted below – mark the day a year out from the 2010 mid-term elections. A year from now, Americans will be choosing 38 United States Senators, 435 U.S. House members, 37 governors, and more than 5,000 state senators and state representatives. more... |
"That Was the Week That Was" | John Ashford | May 22, 2009
While I’m not sure this past week was a uniquely epic “That Was the Week That Was” (does anyone remember that from the Middle, if not Dark, Ages of television . . . or Walter Cronkite’s “a day like all days, filled with those events that alter and illuminate our time”?), it WAS notable – and jam-packed – in so many ways. more... |
Presidents Team Needs to Get Back to Grassroots Organizing Basics |Suzanne Hammelman | April 22, 2009
While President Obama's team was staggeringly impressive in its grassroots organizing and turnout efforts during the campaign, it has been less so with its issue-advocacy arm, Organizing for America (OFA). more... |
2008 Year End Review | John Ashford | Decmeber 18, 2008
As this epic year draws to an end, it is tempting to fall back on some lines from Charles Dickens -- not the happy ending from A Christmas Carol, “God Bless us each and every one!” (tho’ we wish that, too, of course) -- but, rather, his lines from A Tale of Two Cities, noting that “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness . . . it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness . . . ” more... |
"That Was the Week That Was" | John Ashford | May 22, 2009
While I’m not sure this past week was a uniquely epic “That Was the Week That Was” (does anyone remember that from the Middle, if not Dark, Ages of television . . . or Walter Cronkite’s “a day like all days, filled with those events that alter and illuminate our time”?), it WAS notable – and jam-packed – in so many ways. more... |
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