Wave Election Forecasting

The Hawthorn Group | 0 comments | by The Hawthorn Group

To Hawthorn Friends & Family –

Honored to participate recently at the National Archives forum on wave elections hosted by the U.S.Association of Former Members of Congress.  The discussion can be viewed on YouTube or on C-SPAN’s website.

 In projecting the outlook for this year’s midterms, I observed that, looking back on the last 13 non-presidential election years, when the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent his party loses an average of 40 seats.  Donald Trump’s approval is now in the 43 to 45 percent range leading me to predict a Blue Wave delivering a Democratic pickup in the House approaching 30 seats.

My thanks to U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress for organizing this event.  Was truly a privilege to share perspectives with such esteemed alumni of the U.S. House as “Watergate baby” Governor Jim Blanchard (D- Mich., U.S. House 1975 – 1983) and the Honorable Ann Marie Buerkle (R – NY, 2011 – 2013), Hon. Tom Davis (R – Va., 1995 – 2009) and Hon. Marjorie Margolies (D – Pa. 1992 – 1995).  Also, great to see in the audience The Honorable Barbara Kennelly (D – Ct., 1982 – 1999).

With. Left to right, Hon. Ann Marie Buerkle, Governor Jim Blanchard, Hon. Tom Davis, Hon. Marjorie Margolies and panel moderator David Hawkings (former editor of CQ Roll Call).
With. Left to right, Hon. Ann Marie Buerkle, Governor Jim Blanchard, Hon. Tom Davis, Hon. Marjorie Margolies and panel moderator David Hawkings (former editor of CQ Roll Call).

All Photos (c) Bruce Guthrie

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