You already know what happened last Tuesday. You stayed up for the results, and by Wednesday morning, you’d already come across a dozen takes on them. We figured you didn’t need one more of those emails, so we skipped it.

We are following up on one thing, though. Earlier this year, we noted that data centers had quickly become the issue that no gubernatorial candidate could dodge. Here is how the races we profiled turned out, and why we think it matters even more over the next 12 months than it did leading up to Election Day.

The Scorecard

  • Georgia. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), who called for a statewide pause, beat Rick Jackson (R). Democrats also won both Public Service Commission seats, giving them a 3–2 majority on the for the first time in 30 years
  • Nevada. Aaron Ford (D) unseated Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) after running multiple ads targeting data centers, highlighting Lombardo’s agreement to place data centers on public land.
  • Ohio. Amy Acton (D) defeated Vivek Ramaswamy (R) on a “conditional moratorium” platform requiring developers to cover 100% of their utility costs.
  • Alaska. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), the only moratorium supporter in the field, leads with about 49% of first-choice votes. The AP has not called the race and ranked-choice results are due November 18.
  • Texas. Gina Hinojosa (D) ousted Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Once a key supporter of data center development, Abbott’s late halt on data center permits didn’t save him. Hinojosa called it “nothing more than an election-year stunt”.
  • Wisconsin. David Crowley (D) beat Tom Tiffany (R) by about 8 points, despite spending seven figures in “Data Center David” ads. While he might be one of the more friendly Governor-elects, we don’t expect a friendly legislature.
  • Pennsylvania. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) won easily. Democrats also won all four state Senate races Shapiro had targeted over data centers, which was enough to flip the upper chamber for the first time in 33 years
  • New Mexico and Oregon. Deb Haaland (D), who promised a day-one executive order, won by about 14 points. Gov. Tina Kotek (D), who has already halted new data center permits, won reelection.
    Most notably, voters sent the same message further down the ballot. They sided against data centers in every local ballot measure but one.
  • Democrats won state trifectas, control of the Governor’s mansion and both legislative chambers, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada. And the uncalled races in Arizona and Alaska look to be trending in their favor too.

The Fight Moves to the Statehouse

The “blue wave” has come ashore, and the next round of data center fights will play out in state capitals with new political makeups. Not only did Democrats win governorships, they also flipped the Pennsylvania Senate, are projected to retake both chambers in Wisconsin, and won control of Georgia’s Public Service Commission that regulates the energy infrastructure and power rates and even under its current leadership has taken a strong stand on data centers.

Especially when narrative fatigue hits over the term ‘data centers,’ many of these fights won’t look like attacks on data centers. Instead, they’ll be fought over affordability, an evergreen issue. Residential electricity prices have risen more than 10% nationally since 2024, and the EIA expects them to keep climbing in 2027. Analysts call data centers “one of 20 things” behind higher bills, alongside aging grid equipment. But they are the most visible explanation, and they will likely stand in front of the coming rate debates, making this issue unique in comparison to other recent cases of anti-development politics.

  • THG Intelligence expects the 2027 sessions to bring fights over:
  • Large-load tariffs and who pays for new generation and transmission
  • Repeal or suspension of state tax incentives
  • Requiring multi-state agency approval in a burdensome NEPA-like process
  • Local approval requirements, setbacks and siting standards
  • Water-use reporting and permitting conditions
  • The authority and makeup of utility commissions

Politicization will likely follow as momentum builds in both directions. As has been repeated nationwide, voters already rejected data centers in every local ballot measure but one. Local opponents will cite new state laws, and state legislators will cite local opposition. Goldman Sachs estimates that Democratic wins in Texas, Michigan and Georgia could put about 45% of planned U.S. data center capacity at risk.

And the question we raised in early this year is still open: will the new rules apply to projects already in the pipeline? Even in states where the legislature also wants to see data center regulation, inevitably the fight will be in the details. As to how any such rules can or might apply retroactively, just remember, Governors are powerful executives with many levers to pull – from executive orders to boards, commissioners and agencies they control. For Governors who campaigned on a moratorium, there will be immense political will to win, even if it’s short-lived. We expect the lobbyists, lawyers and courts to be quite busy.

In this environment, the projects that succeed will be the ones that have seen the problems coming and developed a strategy to address them – just what Hawthorn Intelligence was built for. The landscape ahead is uncertain, but it doesn’t have to catch you off guard.