With four weeks until the midterm elections, data center opposition is increasingly shaping voter perceptions and political campaigns. Our latest Hawthorn Intelligence insights show where data center opposition is emerging, who is controlling final decisions, and what to expect in the weeks ahead.
At this point on the calendar, three primary trends caught our eye when analyzing The Hawthorn Intelligence national data center opposition tracker – and if you have your own interests or questions, we’d love to hear from you to discuss access to our database.
- Data center restrictions are not a one-party issue. Of the 82 restrictive state legislative data center bills introduced in 2026 in our records with an identified sponsor, 41 were sponsored by Democrats, 34 by Republicans, and 7 carried sponsors from both parties. Data center opposition does not follow traditional party lines; the nearly even partisan split reinforces what political observers have increasingly recognized.
- The issue is active in politically competitive counties—but not confined to them. Fifty-six counties decided by fewer than 10 points in the 2024 election have enacted a restriction. Together, those counties are home to 24.5 million people. Among similarly sized counties, politically competitive counties restrict at about the same rate as safe ones, so the issue is live whether it’s a red, blue or purple district.
- Voters are starting to decide these fights directly. Hawthorn Intelligence recorded 15 opposition actions in 2026 where voters voted directly on the issue (referendums, recalls, board elections and ballot petitions), up from 4 in all of 2025. We expect this to increase again in 2027. Watch this space!
So where is opposition to these projects growing the fastest?
- Opposition records from 2025 to 2026 year to date: New Jersey 5 to 39, North Carolina 7 to 37, Illinois 5 to 28, California 5 to 25. For comparison, the national total went from 324 to 1,078 on the same basis.
Our team will continue to monitor these trends, but what we’re seeing holistically is a growing national tidal wave, largely transcending party lines, with the issue particularly potent in closely contested counties. Just this week our team heard about a seven-figure ad buy in the Kansas Governor’s race, where support for data centers was the primary issue.
We expect to see more campaigns use data centers as an electoral issue in the weeks ahead, and we will continue monitoring these developments. But beyond elections, we are already looking ahead to 2027 – which we expect to be the busiest legislative session yet for data center restrictions – via legislative, executive and regulatory action. If it would be useful, our team would be glad to discuss what these trends could mean for your projects, investments, or priority markets.
Best,
Jefferson Freeman
VP of Research, Hawthorn Group
