As we continue through the summer, the temperature is rising – and data center protests continue to build alongside the number on the thermometer.
Utilizing information gleaned from our ongoing work around the country and observable data at hand, Hawthorn continues to track the evolution and growth of the anti-data center movement and the community and voter sentiment that drives local and state actions. While it is necessary to understand the opposition, it’s vital to use that information to find solutions. Our three latest findings and one informed observation:
- At least one in sixteen American counties (197 across 43 states), and home to 67 million people, has enacted a data center moratorium or zoning restriction. Incredibly, 133 of those counties voted for Trump in 2024 (72 of them by a margin of more than 30 points). The White House’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge (meant to shield residential ratepayers from data center-related costs) is an attempt to prove to these voters that they are doing SOMETHING – though it’s to be seen if voters broadly buy into this effort.
- Half the counties with restrictions (100 of 197) have no tracked project and no existing facility in our data, showing that elected officials are often acting ahead of the development itself. In some ways, this is understandable – local elected officials are seeing the political writing on the wall and preemptively siding with the wisdom of what they perceive as a mob. This is actually a great time to engage. From our decades of local campaign experience, we can confidently say relationship building early on in state and local communities is crucial. There is no substitute.
- Of the 85 opposed projects with decided outcomes in the Hawthorn database, 59 advanced, and only 26 were blocked. We believe this is the most important data point – opposition doesn’t necessarily doom a project outright – but it does require investment in a thoughtful, strategic campaign in order to maintain both your social license to operate and project goals.
- Current research, as well as observation and our well-honed instincts, tell us that people do have some understanding of the evolution of technology and that infrastructure needs to be built to keep up. This understanding is a foundation to begin building the right approach – community by community – strengthening voter and leadership support.
The Hawthorn Intelligence team fits within and supports our broader efforts at Hawthorn. Our team is deeply experienced in developing successful advocacy and grassroots efforts that will help get your project over the finish line. We’d love to talk with you about our methodology and track record of success.
Jefferson Freeman
VP of Research, Hawthorn Group
