Late last week we presented a political analysis of how we’re seeing things in this crazy world . . . and that was before it got even crazier – and more dangerous – with the bombing of Iran.
You can access the presentation HERE. Since nearly 90 slides are surely more than even political junkies want to endure, let me give you the highlights:
- In this year’s two governors races, Democrats SHOULD hold New Jersey and will VERY LIKELY pick up Virginia.
- In 2026, with 35 U.S. Senate seats up (22 Republican and 13 Democrats), despite having to defend more seats, Republicans will keep control of the U.S. Senate.
- It is far too early to predict the U.S. House. Historically, in the first mid-term election the party in the White House should lose their (narrow) majority. But we’re nearly 500 days from the election. Will we be experiencing a Trump Renaissance or a Trump Recession or neither? How will the “big, beautiful bill” be enacted and what consequences will have been felt, by whom, by November, 2026? How will the war(s) in the Middle East have affected us?
- In 2026, 36 governor offices will be on the ballot, 18 Republican and 18 Democrat (of whom six have not confirmed they will run for re-election). At this point, it appears to us likely Republicans will pick up one governorship.
In the linked presentation, you may find Slide #44 (displayed above) interesting, showing the few states with narrow – and the many with wide – margins in the 2024 presidential battle.
We have moved a lot of the more detailed data into a fourth section, “Into the Weeds,” for the true data junkies. You may find interesting – old dinosaur that I am, I did – slides 83-88 on the increasing importance of Podcasts.
In this fast-changing, chaotic and uncertain world, all predictions come with a (very) high margin of error. Much can – and will – change over the next 15-plus months.
Certainly, the President’s fortunes and those of his party could change – for better or worse – as Iran plays out. Will it have been a successful “one and done” strike, with limited reprisals and Iran’s nuclear threat eliminated? Will it lead to U.S. “boots on the ground” coping with regime change? Will the reprisals come on U.S. soil like 9/11? If they do, will the President Trump enjoy the support President Bush (43) did, or will he be blamed for it?
Will there be an economic boom as manufacturing rebounds after the tariffs/deals or a recession as prices rise and employment falls . . . or if Iran successfully closes – and keeps closed – the Straits of Hormuz, pushing oil to $100+/barrel, since 20% of the world’s oil and more of its natural gas passes through those straits (although markets currently seem confident this will NOT happen).
Not since the days of FDR in World War II has a president led a nation willing to sacrifice. President Kennedy was wrong: America will NOT “pay any price, bear any burden . . . ”
Of the 14 presidents from 1945 to 2024, seven were denied a second term. Three were forced to retire (Truman, Johnson and Biden) and four lost re-election (Ford, Carter, G.H.W. Bush, and Trump) . . . and that doesn’t count the one president who resigned (Nixon) and the one who was assassinated (Kennedy), an unhappy exit for nine of 14.
Americans’ desires consistently exceed their willingness to sacrifice for them:
- They WANT illegal immigrants sent home . . . but they do NOT want to lose immigrants they know/like, good farm/service workers, or see families split, see rights ignored.
- They WANT U.S. manufacturing protected/enhanced with tariffs . . . but they do NOT want to pay higher prices.
- They WANT “waste, fraud, and abuse” eliminated . . . but they do NOT want to lose local hospitals, nursing home and drug access for family members on Medicaid, nor the benefits of new drugs . . . and we’ll discover this summer how well they’ll respond to FEMA cuts or, God forbid, to FAA cuts when the next plane incident happens.
- They WANT a reduction in the wokeness of elitist higher education . . . but they do NOT want their kids to lose federal education funding nor research from which they are benefiting.
- They WANT cleaner energy . . . but they do NOT want to pay higher electric bills to subsidize renewables and infrastructure.
- They WANT AI/datacenters and their jobs/taxes . . . but they do NOT want them and their infrastructure located in their communities (NIMBY), nor to pay for them.
As the citizens of Hamelin learned from the Pied Piper back in 1284, “The piper must be paid.”
Americans don’t like paying the piper. Ask nine presidents who left office before they wanted to.
John
